Power Quality Impact Prediction Of New Electrified Railway

With the development of electrified railway construction, electrified railway load widely distributes in power grid. The operation of electrified railway will produce many adverse effects to power system. Harmonic and negative sequences are two of the main power quality problems. Its scope with the railway electrification mileage growth. The Impact prediction on the power quality of new electrified railway will provide scientific basis for substation designing and power grid planning.This paper based on the measured data of traction substations, using data mining technology combination with probability and mathematical statistics method to establish traction load probability model. For base wave, after data processed, use β function to fit the probability density histogram. Fitting test shows, β function can be very good fitting the probability density function. For harmonic, the traction’s load harmonic process is regarded as a two random process. Thinking harmonic amplitude and phase are two random variables with relative independence, and then establish its probability model by data mining, and probability distribution, the curve fitting.This paper also introduces how to calculate the unknown parameters of prediction model, according to the early data of the new substation, then produce traction load data sample by using The Monte Carlo method. Finally, the forecast data access network evaluation, get power grid evaluation point of negative sequence and harmonic value.