The Analysis Modeling And Simulation For High Voltage Transmission Line Safety Operation State

Under the situation of the rapid development of the national economy, the distribution of high voltage transmission line is becoming more and more popular. Therefore, the reliability of the transmission network of power system directly affects the development of national economy and social stability. Transmission line as an important part of the system appears important especially. Since the20th century, many areas in our country have occurred in every kind of transmission line fault because of the bad environment and climate factors. Since70years, a lot of areas of our country is under the situation of lack report seriously, power supply shortage is restricting economic development, how to change the transmission case, lifting wire conveying capacity has strong significance. By the climate and terrain, weather conditions, ice disaster accidents in our country occur frequently. Transmission lines in many areas make line load increased because of freezing rain and ice coating, causing many accidents such as disconnection, tower, flashover, that cause huge economic losses to society. Especially in the year of2008, the large area of snowfall brought serious economic loss. Therefore, the analysis for safety state of high voltage transmission line has important theoretical and practical significance.Firstly, this paper analyses the high-voltage transmission lines capacity steady-state process, discusses short-term trend changes of carrying capacity, apply the Brown single parameter linear exponential law and the adaptive filtering method, designs and realizes the prediction model, simulates and analyses this model, based on the carrying capacity of the known time sequence. Then, this paper proves ice cover thickness formula at the same high transmission line tower contours and not high, aims at the ice thickness trend change of high-voltage transmission line, uses the gray prediction model to make short-term forecasting, analyses and verifies the applicability of the prediction model and error. Finally, this paper aims at the three degrees of freedom model for high-voltage wire dancing, uses Runge-Kutta method to simulate and solve it, fits and simulation analyses conductor galloping process.This paper aims at distinguish needs of three operating states of high-voltage transmission lines, which are carrying capacity, ice thickness and conductor galloping, analyses the data characteristic of three types operating status, chooses different discriminant methods to study, provide auxiliary support tools and methods to timely analysis and make decision about the state of high voltage transmission lines for the management.