Multi-level Recursive Forecasting Method For Road Accidents

Traffic safety problem earns more and more focus because traffic accidents occur more and more frequently. It is the major subject that how to predict the traffic accident accurately. This paper will put forward road traffic accident of multi-layer recursive fore-cast method, and the forecasting method research by analyzing the traditional traffic acci-dent prediction method.The complexity of the traffic system determines the difficulty of the traffic accident prediction. As the adaption of all the prediction is different, prediction accuracy will changes. So it is necessary for a prediction method of in-depth analysis to found in its own characteristics, and then applied it in order to improve the precision of forecasting.This paper does the traffic accident prediction by multi-layer recursive forecast me-thod. During the prediction, the following contents are researched:1. When using multi-layer recursive forecast method for road traffic accidents predic-tion, research the change of the prediction accuracy with different prediction time to im-prove the accuracy of using that method predicting the traffic accidents.2. The historical characteristics which the multi-layer recursive forecast based on have an effect on the accuracy. This paper does the research of the adaptation of multi-layer re-cursive forecast by doing prediction with smoothly and wave type data.3. Most of the predict methods have to deal with the prediction factors. It has a great effect on the accuracy of the multi-layer recursive forecast method that how to choose the factor. The paper mainly studies the changes of the multi-layer recursive forecast method accuracy with different pretreatment on the factors.