Theoretical Research On The Life Cycle Management Of The Power Grid Assets Based On Markov Process

With the expansion of the scale of power grid, the number of power transmission and transformation equipment increases sharply, the traditional idea and behavior focused on only assets equipment performance and ignoring the asset value has not been able to meet the demand of the development of power grid in a new situation. Learning from advanced experience of asset management in foreign power grids, conducting the life cycle management of assets can ensure the reliability of the power equipment at the same time, improve the utilization of equipment assets, extend the usage life of equipment, reduce the life cycle cost, and guarantee the good level of power grid assets.The life cycle management of the assets is a kind of management ideas and methods from the long-term benefits of assets aiming at pursuing the lowest life cycle cost of assets on the premise of ensuring safety, reliability, efficiency and benefit, which takes fully into account the whole process of generation, usage, maintenance and disposal of assets. It is the deepening of reliability science. This paper is based on the theory of Markov process in the analysis of power equipments reliability and the way of building the state transition matrix and the method of calculating reliability indexes like the system state probability, the state frequency and the duration time of state are elaborated on the basis of the deep analysis of its definition and properties, which provides a basis for this paper.On that basis, this paper firstly divides reasonably the usage life of equipment into three periods from the view point of the equipment selection, operation maintenance and retirement according to the characteristics of assets in degradation process. Selecting equipment types depending on only the original investment fees of assets has some limitations. According to the power equipment reliability indexes, we can judge the probability of equipment in fault state. Then the calculation model of life cycle cost allowing for the equipment reliability can be set up. Through this model we can compare and analyze the life cycle cost of different equipment to provide a comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-making on initial investment for equipment type selection. Based on the above results of study, The core of promoting the life cycle asset management is how to determine the optimal strategy of maintenance according to the different equipment states in changeable stages of operation costs,namely in equipment operation and maintenance stage. This paper established the degradation model of electric power equipment based on the Semi-Markov decision process. The optimal maintenance strategy in the comprehensive consideration of the reliability and economical efficiency can be determined finally by application of strategy iteration algorithm in dynamic programming problems to different maintenance strategy optimization. The optimal maintenance strategy can reduce the life cycle cost (LCC) and meet the demand of the life cycle asset management (LCAM).Finally, based on the project of the life cycle management of power equipments of Jining Power Supply Company, Promoting the practical application of engineering achieves a good result, which provides basic conditions of deep research in this field.