Research Of Load Characteristics Analysis And Its Application For District Power Grid

Recent years, as the contradiction between power supply and its demanddeepened in our country, strengthening the power demand side management becomeseach power company’s urgent task. As the main work of the power demand sidemanagement, promoting district power grid load characteristic anslysis is theimportant premise of drafting the program of load control, and it has greatsignificance for improving the accuracy of load forecasting further more.The development of electric power load has very strong regional characteristics.This paper takes Xiangtan power grid as the research object, analyzes the year’s,month’s and day’s load characteristics on the basis of collecting and assemblingquantities of data, gives a detailed analysis on the development of electric load andthe growth trend of industry consumption in the "Eleventh Five-Year" period.This paper systematically summarizes the influencing factors to loadcharacteristic and analyzed them in detail, this is of great guiding significance topower company for promoting the work of load characteristic anslysis. Firstlyseparates the meteorological sensitive load from the original load time series by themethod of base load-based comparison, and then quantitatively analyzes thecorrelation between this part load and daily average temperature by employing theregression analysis. And analyzes the influence from the factors such as largecustomers, holidays and uncontrolled power plants and so on. At last, takes a certainarea load in hunan as example, explains the influence of power pricing policies toload characteristic from power generation-side and demand-side.According to the power cutting rules of Power Consumption Orderly (PCO),illustrates the load control method to PCO based on priority of load classification, itis of great help for power company to promote the peak clipping work of PCO.Analyzes the influence to load characteristic after implementing PCO in districtpower grid, puts forward a short-term load forecasting strategy considering PCO.Summarizes the current difficulties in the work of PCO and gives some effectivesuggestions for the work of PCO running smoothly.Based on the load characteristics analysis of Xiangtan district, puts forward ashor-term load forecasting model based on sub step forecasting. After removed theXianggang electric load and added generation electricity from uncontrolled power plant, the basis part load can better embody the load change rule and predictability.Because of the the features of nonlinearity impact fluctuation for Xianggang electricload, this paper adoptes the wavelet analysis to its forecasting. In addition,considering the features in holidays that the sample data is too few and the loadcurve similarity is high in the same type holiday, this paper adoptes the times thansmoothing method to the holiday load forecasting.