Meishan Electric Power Load Forecast Planning Layout Management System Design

In recent years, with the rapid growth of economy and the great increase ofelectricity demand, however, the increase of new install capacity can not keep up withthe requirement of development, this lead to the national tension of supplying anddemanding situation of electric power. Shortage of electric power is not only aseriously threat to the secure operation of power grid, but also have negative effect tothe health development of the National Economy. So in order to improve the safety ofpower grid operation, the economic returns and social benefits of power enterprise andat least guarantee social production needs and household use must rely on accurateelectric load prediction.Electronic load prediction means according to the historic data to predict loaddata at a certain time in the future, it is an important part of energy managementsystem. Electronic load prediction is not only has been extension applied in work out athermal unit commitment scheme, a power transmission scheme and a power loaddispatch plan, but also has become an important way to realize the modernizationmanagement in power system. Secondly, capacity-load ratio is a widely used index forsubstation sitting and capacity selection in urban power network planning, the value ofwhich has great influence on the scope and economic efficiency of power networkplanning. Seeing that relevant guide for urban power grid planning in China onlysuggests the range of capacity-load ratio value, this paper makes a research ondetermination of reasonable capacity-load ratio. In view of the significance of the fourcoefficients are analyzed. With the analysis of the determination of reasonablecapacity-load ratio in a certain city power grid, it is pointed out that the capacity-loadratio should be determined rationally based on in-depth analysis of main influencingfactors according to the features of the given power grid.Firstly, this paper introduced a various methods of power load forecast and thencombine it with reality to find an optional method. In order to find a suitable methodfor a certain city, this article introduced some methods for electric load forecasting suchas per-unit consumption, grey model, regression analysis and trend analysis. It is concluded that per unit consumption and grey model are fit for short-term forecast. Themethod of trend analysis is suitable for medium and long term forecast. Thencomparing of prediction value and actual value, this proved that those methodsintroduced in this paper are practicable. According to this, we can find out a reasonablecapacity-load ratio value. At last, based on the reasonable prediction method andcapacity-load ratio, we can brought out the power supply capacity evaluation andelectric power planning and positioning. At last this paper combination of capacity-loadratio and load prediction to make a interfacial of VC.The function of input data,analytical data, forecast data and monitored data have been realized. It has significanteconomic and engineering value.