Research On Probabilistic Distribution Model Of On-grid Distributed Photovoltaic Power

Because of its clean, widely distributed, Photovoltaic power has attracted more and more attention. Distributed photovoltaic power output power has randomness, volatility and other characteristics. Existing photovoltaic power output model can not accurately describe these characteristics of photovoltaic power output power.According to the analysis of the10kW photovoltaic system measured data of Hebei Electric Power Research Institute, this paper proposed a new probabilistic distribution model of on-grid distributed photovoltaic power, and combined with probability load flow algorithm; this model had been used to research the influence of photovoltaic power access to distribution network. First-of all, this paper proposed basic solar radiation model, photovoltaic cell engineering model and grid-connected inverter model. Then through the photovoltaic cell engineering model and grid-connected inverter model to deduce photovoltaic power overall output model. And combined with the actual measurement data this paper verified the accuracy of photovoltaic cell engineering model and photovoltaic power overall output mode. At last, randomized solar radiation models it is concluded that the sun radiation accord with the Beta distribution in the short term. combined with the photovoltaic power overall output model this paper eventually obtained probabilistic distribution model of on-grid distributed photovoltaic power.Combined with probabilistic load flow algorithm, this paper selected the IEEE34node power distribution system and the10kW photovoltaic system of Hebei Electric Power Research Institute as an example. Applying the proposed model research the influence of photovoltaic power accessed to distribution network. Through comparing the voltage changes of each distribution network node after different capacity photovoltaic power accessed to distribution network, it can come to the conclusion that photovoltaic power accessing to distribution network makes each node voltage a small rise, but the voltage out-of-limit probability also increases accordingly. Magnitudes of the voltage rise and increase degrees of voltage out-of-limit probability are proportional to the acces capacity of photovoltaic power...