Operation Risk Assessment Of Generation And Transmission System Containing Wind Farms

China has a bright future for development and application in wind and other new energy generation resources. Wind power has a strong nature of intermittency and volatility, which makes the power side of generation and transmission system is full of uncertainty and can’t be completely controlled no longer. Besides, the forced outages of conventional generation remain, which will be volatile according to the impacts of large scale wind power to grid on the real-time power flow. These will bring the huge challenge to the system’s science dispatch and safe operation. Therefore, it will be significance to study the influence of wind farms to power system and quantify the operation risk of generation and transmission system containing wind farms reasonably, which will also develop the security, reduce the threat presented by wind power and make use of wind power better.Firstly, this paper established the conventional generator’s time-varying outage model based on the uncertainty risk factors of the power side. The model considered not only the generator’s aging failure cumulative effect by long service, and also the changes of external operation conditions. Then the operation economic losses risk of the conventional generation system with some generators is evaluated, which is caused by the forced outage of generators. The results can be a reference for generation system to measure self-interest of the generation system. This paper also used Java tools of Intellij IDEA to achieve the practical development of conventional generation system operation risk sub-module, which is based on the platform and the RDS(Risk Dispatch System) of our laboratory.Based on the outage model of conventional generation, this paper adopted the multi-state wind power model to present the uncertainty, considering that the wind power is depend mainly on the forced outage of wind turbines and the errors of wind speed forecast. The operation risk assessment model of generation and transmission system containing wind farms is established, which is based on the model considering the uncertainty of conventional generation and wind power as well as the load forecast deviation. According to the effects of wind farms on the system, the node time-varying importance is introduced as a weight and the dimensionless utility value is used to evaluate the system outage severity. Then a set of system operation risk utility indicators considering the node time-varying importance is proposed to evaluate the operation risk and reserve. The loss of load probability(LOLP) and the utility value of expected power not supplied(REdns) are used to characterize the operation reserve risk level of the generation and transmission system containing wind farms, which can provide some theory reference value for safe operation.