Models Research On Earth-rock Dams Seepage Safety Monitoring

In our country there are85,000reservoirs. After decades of running the dangerous ones are up to40%. We know that the serious dams’destruction is caused by seepage. However, in recent20years, automated security monitoring has been applied for many dams, and a lot of operational data and monitoring information have been accumulated. Thus, it is valuable to timely evaluate and feedback for dam safety on the basis of establishing earth-rock dam seepage safety monitoring model with the operational data and monitoring information for theoretical study and engineering application.This paper analyzes the current situation of dangerous reservoirs in China and describes the causes of dangerous reservoirs. It focuses on the harm and destruction of seepage to earth-rock dams. This paper not only details the analysis methods of earth-rock dam prototype monitoring data and describes an effective method of eliminating outlier data, but also discusses the factors which causes lagged effects in values of seepage observation and lag time correction method. It studies the methods of the tube water level process line, the relevant line of tube water level and reservoir water level, the tube water line under featured reservoir water level, qualitative analysis of typical cross-sections seepage to demonstrate the actual behavior of dam seepage.This paper focuses on the methods of establishing earth-rock dam seepage safety monitoring models, including the statistical model, the deterministic model and the mixed model. Deterministic model uses the method of seepage finite element calculation method for the inversion of permeability coefficient, thereby forward calculates the dam under series of water level conditions and establishes the deterministic model based on dam water level factors. The mixed model is established with the statistical analysis method based on the deterministic model for all influential factors, excluding the dam water levels.Taking Sangjian reservoir in Anhui province as an example, based on seepage observation data from1983to2003, this paper analyzes the process line, the relevant line, tube water line under the featured dam water level and the typical cross-sections seepage and separately establishes the statistical model, the deterministic model, the mixed model. It also analyzes and compares explanation ability, test of statistical parameters and fitting effect of each model. Accompanied by the large and medium-sized reservoirs’reinforcement projects being carried out, in this paper the research achievement of seepage safety monitoring model will have the popularization and application value and generate significant social and economic benefits.