Forecast Of China Container Freight Index Based Upon Wavelet Analysis And ARIMA Model

As a derivative market of the international trade, the container liner shipping market is subject to a very serious impact of the world economy, and its freight is also a concern during the post financial crisis era. As the container transport market is affected by many factors, there is a lot of noise in the time series signal which is constituted by the historical data of the China Container Freight Index (CCFI). Therefore, this article combines the wavelet analysis with ARIMA model. Using the wavelet analysis to extract the low frequency signal of the freight index and eliminate the high frequency signal, ARIMA model gets better fit and prediction.Firstly, this article elaborated its research background, research significance, study status at home and abroad, and the main research contents and methods. Secondly, the development and current situation of the container transport market was analyzed respectively from four aspects, including the market pattern, the ship operation and the routes layout of the container transport, an outline of the container freight and so on. Thirdly, it simply introduced the domestic and international freight index and CCFI. Fourthly, there was an introduction about the footprint and theoretical basis of the wavelet analysis, and then a denoising process was done to the original data of the CCFI. After that, it introduced the time series and its related concepts as well as the time series model. Based on the time series data of the CCFI which had been denoised with the wavelet analysis, an ARIMA model was established to forecast the CCFI, and there was also an analysis according to the predictions. Finally, it had a summary of the full text and a prospect to the future research in allusion to the deficiency of this article.The method of establishing an ARIMA model according to the time series data of the CCFI which had been denoised with the wavelet analysis, effectively improved the degree of fitting and prediction effect of the ARIMA model. The research of this paper will provide the beneficial reference for the shipping company, the owner, the agent etc. to understand the container liner shipping market situation, make a judgment about the market direction, timely and accordingly avoid the market risk.