The Research Of Cascade Reservoirs Power Generation Optimized Operation And Risk Early Warning System Based On Power Market

In our country, with the establishment and improvement of power market, the implementation of "factory nets separate, bidding for access", and the completion and running of watershed scale cascade reservoirs, more complex uncertainties and market risks exist in the joint operation and running management of cascade reservoirs. Aiming to some problems encountered in rules and decision-making of cascade reservoir power generation operation under the power market, basing on the complex water resources systems analysis and systems science theory, the paper carried out the research in cascade reservoirs power generation optimized operation and risk early warning mechanism layered coupling model, with examples of Wujiang cascade hydropower stations. Both theoretical analysis and simulative calculation were adopted in this study. The main research results as flowers:(1) The model of cascade reservoirs power generation optimized operation was established under power market, and the solution method was put forword. The paper described optimized operation models of cascade reservoirs under the market and non-market environment respectively, and proposed the application of chaos ant colony optimization in cascade reservoirs power generation optimized operation. Furthermore, rationality and reliability of the hybrid approach, a new solution for high-dimensional and complex model of cascade reservoirs power generation optimized operation, was verified through calculating and analyzing the typical example.(2) The operation rules formulated line of cascade reservoirs power generation operation was made, and generating power of cascade reservoirs was determined by a long series of simulative calculation. In addition, based on the power history characteristics of cascade hydropower stations, the monthly decomposition model of contract energy on account of risk appetite was presented, which had the maximum hydropower income as the objective function. Lastly, the rationality and feasibility of the model were illustrated with an example of Wujiang cascade hydropower stations, which provided theory basis for hydropower competition in power market.(3) Risk early warning mechanism of cascade reservoirs power generation optimized operation under power market was eatablished. Based on the long series of simulative calculation for cascade reservoirs power generation optimized operation, operation risk factors was identified and analyzed. Then evaluation indicators of risk early warning mechanism for cascade reservoirs power generation optimized operation was established by the fuzzy mathematics and information entropy theory. Combined with operation rules formulated line, based on the optimistic and pessimistic estimates of runoff, and integrated into the interest trends and isk preference of decision makers, risk early warning decision support system of cascade reservoirs power generation optimized operation under power market was eatablished. Meanwhile, the rationality and feasibility were illustrated with the calculation and analysis of Wujiang cascade hydropower stations.