A Risk Analysis Of The Winter Wheat Drought Disaster In Jinan City

Jinan lies in the central part of Shandong Province, Wheat is one of the main crops in the area. At the all meteorological disaster, drought is the largest disaster which has great affections for winter wheat growing in the province. So analysis of drought disaster risk is significant for governments and production departments in all levels to achieve drought information timely, formulate measures for drought prevention and mitigation measures.Data used here is published by Jinan Bureau of Statistics, meteorological data in1965-2010and wheat production material in1980-2010every year winter and drought disaster material in1985-2010from6stations in Jinan.Based on the water balance principle in the winter wheat growth process, combining with crop yield and water, Analysis the correlation between the water deficit risk and precipitation negative anomaly percentage and production rate in different period of the winter wheat. Calculated the water deficit risk probability and risk index.Research conclusion is as follows:(1) Upward trend in annual temperature fluctuations in Jinan city, obviously, the apparent temperature in the late of1990s, especially the grave warming is Jinan Eastern Zhangqiu. Spring temperature in close to the annually average, but interannual amplitude is larger.(2) The annual precipitation of Jinan changes greatly. In the70s amplitude is stable, in the80s and00s range is larger; the90s decline significantly, in the late of2000years is increase. Spring precipitation is less in the70-80s, but overall tend to be stable, the interannual amplitude is smaller.(3)From inter-annual features, although the drought risk change is different,it was increased significantly since2000. extreme weather events because of the frequent droughts occur frequently.(4) From the regional distribution point of view, the serious area of drought risk in the period of winter wheat is in Pingyin, Jinan and Zhangqiu, the smaller is in Jiyang and Shanghe.(5) From the wheat growth stages, wheat drought risk maximum maturity, jointing to heading stage, winter minimum. From the production rate corresponding relation, heading and maturity and wheat yield reduction rate correlation of maximum, minimum during overwintering period.Through the study of Jinan area winter wheat drought disaster risk analysis, the main purpose of the paper is intensify and enrich agriculture meteorological service content operational level and ability and could make the meteorological disaster planning to provide scientific support.