The Assessment Of Winter Wheat Dry Under Climate Change Risk On Haihe River Basin

Haihe River basin is one of China’s important production bases of winter wheat, drought is the largest wheat production in agro-meteorological disasters. Drought risk assessment of winter wheat, contribute to the production sectors and all levels of government to grasp the information on drought, the development and implementation of drought plans, drought contingency management to achieve the risk management of change.This information is used in the Haihe River Basin from1961to2010,20weather stations and weather data over the years, Hebei Bureau of winter wheat production. The study included four parts:Part1(chapters1-3), this study focuses on the basic situation, including the background, the purpose of significance, study area and major research methods; Part2(4), the use of wavelet analysis at different growth stages of winter wheat for drought cycle analysis, using GIS technology to varying degrees at different growth stages of winter wheat drought spatial distribution analysis; part3(5), the main research in the context of climate change at different growth stages of winter wheat droughts happen to, and then analyze the meteorological factors which are the main factors; section4(6), summarized the main conclusions and future prospects.The following is the paper’s main findings:(1)The annual average effective rainfall of wintering period of winter wheat in the Haihe River Basin is in the lowest, followed by the jointing stage, in2001and2006accumulated temperature are highest, sunshine hours fluctuations during wintering period.(2)The relationship of jointing stage and filling stage of winter wheat and winter wheat yield is most closely.(3) The drought cycle of winter wheat at different growth stages of the Haihe River Basin more obvious in six years time scale.(4)The winter wheat at different growth stages of the Haihe River Basin occurred dry weight, higher probability were Beijing, Xingtai, Cangzhou and Dezhou.