To Predict The Philosophical Thinking In The Role Of Decision Making

Willard·Van·Orman·Quine believes the nature of prediction is "to expect that similar experiences will have sequels similar to each other". Observable results are deduced together by one or some believed laws and present known conditions, this is the nature of prediction. Scientific theory, scientific hypothesis and observable facts are integrated in the" hypothetico-deductive method" structure of "T->P". In one hand, scientific theory can only be checked through the observable results which are "predicted", as the theory can’t be observed directly, the relative credible theory are constantly in the process of being corrected and reversed. In another hand, the more credible theory makes more precise prediction.Constantly overthrowing past hypothesis by new observations, to keep scientific theory in a briefer and more general system, it’s why scientific prediction is credible. In contrast, the divorced from experience or priori ones, the refuting to reform core theory ones, such as the prediction made by religion and superstition ways, are not credible.Prediction has the nature of decision-making."Selectivity","relying on experience" and "pointing to unknown", are the same traits between prediction and decision-making. General speaking, good prediction makes good decision. But traditional standard decision-making has some errors, such as relying too much on "exact science", as making false interpretation and making false prediction by it; as believing prediction and decision-making are objective and rational actions, then ignoring the human emotion and other factors.Finally, I will show two important functions of prediction in decision-making. Firstly, the future can’t be predicted precisely, the only prediction to future is the existence of fatal risk. So the basic task of decision-making is risk aversion. Secondly, because the human instinct "to expect that similar experiences will have sequels similar to each other", during daily decision-making action, people usually neglect the theoretical laws, but instinctive act on a hunch, thereby causing errors in decision-making, even serious consequences. Instinct Prediction makes decision-making a "born ability" guide, which is the second function. So emphasizing the importance of institution here, as the institution is a good consultant for members of the organization to do routine decision, to overcome negative influence of Instinct Prediction.