A Study On Early-warning Method Of Aviation Security Based On Intelligence

As an important component of the civil aviation safety, aviation security constitutes thecrucial foundation to ensure the smooth development of civil aviation. Since the traditionaland non-traditional social security threats will intertwined and coexisted for a long time, theChina’s civil aviation security has to faced severe challenges. The attacks against civilaviation transportation system not only threatened the life and property safety of air travelers,aviation personnel, aircrafts and aviation facilities, but also had a direct impact on socialstability and economic prosperity and were apt to arise the regional tension. The presentdomestic early-warning management of civil aviation security is focused on the intermediateemergency rescue during the major incidents of aviation security. However, the researchesand applications need to be improved on the effective early-warning to the threats situationfor a period of time in the future based on the threat intelligence information. Futureresearches about aviation security should focus on how to prevent the occurrence of majoraviation security incidents effectively and maintain the aviation security in a controllablestate.With the intelligence of aviation security as the object and the early-warning theories asthe basis of the research, this paper explored an effective approach to predict the threatssituation of aviation security based on intelligence information. For this objective, FuzzyMathematics, Threats Assessment Theory and Multi-attribute Decision Theory were used inthe research, following the principles of combining the qualitative and quantitativeintelligence information and indexing weights without objective or subjective preference.Firstly, the threatening severe situation and the early-warning management status ofdomestic civil aviation security were analyzed. The basic theory of early-warning of aviationsecurity was also reviewed. The advanced notions of security early-warning intelligencesystem of civil aviation powers was also tracked timely and the research system of aviationsecurity information science was proposed.Secondly, the Safety index system for social security, which concluding the aviationsecurity, was explored. And the attributes of intelligence information of aviation securitywere studied with the focus of this research. Then the index system of early-warning of aviation security intelligence was built and the comprehensive threaten index of aviationsecurity reflected by some certain intelligence was calculated with integrated weightedmethod.Finally, the recommendation of three early-warning grades of aviation security wasproposed. With the multi-factor early-warning method, the early-warning grade was assessedwhile the limit of warning was determined. Then the analysis of analog applications ofearly-warning method based on aviation security intelligence was carried out.