Scenario Analysis Based Power Emergency Management Research

Taking into account the fact that power emergency is highly complicated anduncertain, the paper introduces scenario analysis method which is advantaged indealing with uncertainties to research power emergency management.The paper explains connotation and advantanges of scenario analysis and analyzes thecharacteristics of power emergency. Then from the perspective of inherent ruleanalysis, plan formulation and real time decision making, the paper discourses thesuitability of introducing scenario analysis to research power emergency management.Aftet that, the paper constructs the structure of scenario analysis based poweremergency management research model including steps of the research model, poweremergency management influencing factors analysis and scenario constructionmethods.With the background of the blackout in the United States and Canada on the August14in2003, the paper analyzes the development process of this blackout with scenarioanalysis, showing how to put the scenario analysis based power emergency researchmodel into real use. Through scenario analysis, the paper finds out the inherent rulesof power emergency management and points out the focused directions of improvingthe level of power emergency management.The paper verifies the effectiveness of scenario analysis based power emergencyresearch model with the analysis of the Hainan power contingency in2005. Theanalysis shows that the rules of power emergency management revealed throughscenario analysis are also appliable to Hainan power contingency. Taking intoconsideration of the situation of China, the paper suggests some measures to make thepower emergency management in China better.