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The Research Of The Status Of Composition And The Prediction Of The Population In Shanxi Province

Posted on:2012-09-16Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2247330371979024Subject:Social Medicine and Health Management
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The research purposeEstablishing the model of population forecast of Shanxi Province, predictingthe future demography status to provide the basis for future demographic and socialand environmental sustainability of Shanxi Province.The research methodsThe research material comes from the5years census data of1953,1964,1982,1990and2000in Shanxi Province, and the "Shanxi Statistical Yearbook" from2000to2010.1.Literature research method: collating,synthesizing and analysising theexisting literature;2.Calculation method: simulating the linear regression model, quadraticpolynomial regression model, cubic polynomial regression model and gray GM (1,1)model of population development in Shanxi Province according to various censusand the sample survey of population, and then describing the population statusand developing process in Shanxi Province by using the SPSS13.0,Matlab and greysystem theory software;3.Comparative analysis method: forecasting, analysising and comparing thetotal population, male population and female population from2005to2009and thetotal dependency ratio, old age dependency ratio and the child dependency ratiofrom2007to2009through the model.The research result1.By2009the total population in Shanxi Province is3427.36million, theannual growth rate is0.61%.Among them, the male population is1758.13million,which accounted for51.30%, the female population is1669.23million, whichaccounted for48.70%, the men and women sex ratio is1.05:1;2.The next20years,the total population in Shanxi Province will increasefrom3465.82million of2010to3581.81million of2019, which shows the increasingtrend, but the annual growth rate will decrease year by year;3.The next20years,the male population and female population will becomes more balanced,the ratio is1:1;4.the total bring-up ratio of Shanxi Province is32.91,31.57,30.15,28.63,26.97,25.17respectively from2010~2015, a year after year downtrend;5.the elderly bring-up ratio of Shanxi Province is11.84,13.08,14.74,16.91,19.64,23.00respectively from2010~2015,the elderly population willincrease;6.the children bring-up ratio of Shanxi Province is11.67,7.26,2.05,which shows the increasing trend,and the number of births declines.The research conclusion1.The cubic polynomial regression model has the minimum error and the highestprecision,which is suitable for the future population forecast in Shanxi Province;2.The next20years,the total population in Shanxi Province will increase,but the annual growth rate will decline;The next5years the total bring-up ratioof Shanxi Province will decrease;the older population will increase, and theaging process will accelerate;...
Keywords/Search Tags:Shanxi Province, population forecast, cubic polynomial regressionmodel
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