Design And Implementation Of The Oil Price Forecasting Subsystem In Global Energy Monitoring And Early Warning And Policy Analysis System

Energy plays a pivotal role in economic development, and it has a very important position. As one among the major energies and excellent chemical and industrial raw material, also being an important strategic resource vital to national well-being and the people’s livelihood, oil takes a decisive position in national economic growth. Since2002, international oil price has boomed from about20$/bbl to more than100$/bbl in recent years, which has a huge impact on the national economic. With the rapid growth of China’s economy, the demand for oil will become more and more massive and the effect of oil price on China will also get more and more evident. Therefore, researches on the reasons of oil price volatility, the forecast and risk control of oil price are more important than ever before.The system currently has the following features:energy demand forecast、level of energy consumption monitoring、carbon tariffs policy simulation、international oil price forecast、assessment of global low-carbon development、dynamic assessment of large energy companies、dynamic monitoring of China energy security and China carbon tariffs policy simulation. Author is responsible for the design and implementation of the international oil price forecast, and the design and partial implementation of generic algorithm layer. International oil price forecast is an important basis of analysis of future energy markets, and is the important of the system. Oil price prediction is composed by the data visualization module, oil price forecasts module, and speculative analysis module. Data visualization module is to display the various varieties of oil and gas prices and trends; oil price forecasts module can define the event which affects the oil price and the parameters, and query historical events, then the user can choose a variety of different algorithms to predict the future price of oil and give the results and provides report printing functions; Speculative module used the algorithm for the future speculative market behavior analysis. Algorithm layer uses XML to record different algorithm, organized the algorithm and configure the parameters in XML, improve the flexibility of the algorithm layer.The system uses the B/S architecture, based on the MVC design pattern, using a lightweight open source framework for the design and development, the view layer uses the Flex framework, so that the development is rapid and the user interface is beautiful.