Empirical Research On Managers Political Relations、Overconfidence And Operational Risk

In recent years, the company’s business risk research mostly focuses on business riskearly-warning model of China’s listed companies. This paper chooses ST companies as theobject of study, examining a specific company’s financial indicators to predict the risk ofinformation timeliness and discriminant success rates, there are few articles whichconsidering factors of company’s management impact on the company’s business risks, andthose which research the company’s business risks are even scarcer. Therefore, this articleattempts to proceed from this clue, research manager behavior impact on behavior.In this paper, choosing listed companies data of financial forecast information disclosurein Shenzhen stock market between2008—2010. According the annual disclosure informationabout executives and financial in the CSMAR database, and then arranging one by one. Testthe political relations of manager, overconfidence impacting on the company’s business risks.Studying the relation of the manager political relations, excessive self-confidence and thecompany’s business risk through least squares and two-stage model. After controlling firmsize, investment size, asset-liability ratio, profitability, corporate governance and managementcharacteristics. The results show that: the manager political relationship has a significantnegative impact on overconfidence, and manager overconfidence variables significantlyaffected the business risk, but the manager political relations have not directly affected thecompany’s business risk. Political relation can inhibit manager overconfidence and thusindirectly reduce the company operational risk, such a path like "manager political relations�'overconfidence�'company operational risk". This study not only enriches the behavioralfinance theory, but also from a new point of alienation in business process, Provide a newreference evidence for the business practice.