Research On Empirical Model Of Valuating Mining Rights For Coal Resources

With the continuous development of the coal industry, it is a natural necessity toconstruct the system of acquiring and transferring mining right of coal resources, scientificand rational methods of valuation of mining rights not only can provide a reference andsupport acquiring and transferring mining right of coal resources, but also can achieve theoptimal allocation of mineral resources by the mining rights market, and can ensuresustainable economical development of coal resources, and can help coal companies andinvestors to avoid risks.At present, the main methods of valuating mining rights of coal resources are thediscounted cash flow method, the comparable sales method of valuation, the benefits of theequity method and the real options-based of the mining rights valuation. Using the discountedcash flow method and the benefits of the equity method to a realistic assessment of the miningrights valuation of coal resources, without considering the management flexibility of the coalresources exploitation in the future, and underestimate the value of mining rights. Due tovarious uncertain factors, the comparable sales method of valuation is difficult to promote in awide range. The real options-based of the mining rights valuation is complex to calculate,highly specialized and difficult to use. Therefore, to establish a simple and convenient methodto valuate the mining rights which is closed to the actual mining rights transaction price isvery necessary.This thesis analyzes the operation mechanism of the mineral title market in thedomestic and the factors which influence the value of mining rights, combines with multiplecollieries’ actual statistics and data, quantitatively investigates the empirical model of the coalresources mining rights to pricing. The principal researches and the conclusions are asfollows:(1) Describes the theory of the mining rights valuation and the various existing methodsof the mining rights valuation, then, compares and analyzes the advantages and disadvantagesof the existing methods of the mining rights valuation. (2) Reveals the operation mechanism of the mineral title market of coal resources, then,on the basis, subdivides and presents the internal influencing factors and externalenvironmental factors what have influence on the value of coal resources mining rights.(3) Collects the valuation and trading stories of the mining rights, and adopts thesingle-factor model for the geometric Brownian motion-based of the mining rights valuationto calculate the value of mining rights of some samples which have not obtained the miningrights trading price, then, by means of the combination stepwise regression method of themultiple regression analysis, establishes the empirical model which is under different numbersof model parameters, and then filter out the most suitable explanation for the multipleregression equation of the value of mining rights and test.(4) Gets through an example of valuation of mining rights and comparison of thecalculation results of the discounted cash flow method and single-factor model of the miningrights valuation and the empirical formula and puts forward several policy proposals.