The Research On The Financial Risk Of Manufacturing Industry In China’s Chinext Stock Market

The China’s ChiNext stock market is an emerging investment plate in ourcountry which can supply a platform for the high-tech Small And MediumsizedEnterprises(SME) to financing.As the threshold of ChiNext stock market is lower thanmain-board, the risk is higher. ChiNext stock market is an emerging board, theresearch on financial risk of the companies listed in ChiNext stock market is not deepenough, the investors can’t recognize the high-risk of the ChiNext stock market. Withthe rapid development of the ChiNext stock market and the increasing number of theindeterminacy factors in the market, the financial problems of the companies listed inChiNext stock market become more and more serious. At present, many companieslisted in ChiNext stock market have problems of decline in performance and thegrowth speed which is lower than people expected before. In this context, the paperresearch on the financial risk prediction of manufacturing industry in ChiNext stockmarket.After the analyzing of the methods of financial risk prediction, this paper chosethe multivariate linear model as the mainly research method here. First this paperanalyze the manufacturing industry listed in ChiNext stock market，giving a statisticaldescription of the scale and distribution of manufacturing industry. According to theprinciple of industry matching and equal size, the sample was chosen frommain-board.Using PCA method to analysis variables by SPSS, then determin theindex system to construct the financial risk prediction model. At last this paperanalysis the financial data of102manufacturing industry companies listed in ChiNextstock market, classify these companies into three groups and use traffic signal toindicate the result: there are30companies in green group which means the probabilityof financial risk of these companies is very low in next year. There are46companiesin red group which means the probability of financial risk of these companies is highin next year. And the other companies in yellow group which means more attentionshould be paid on the financial situation of these companies. Finally, the paperanalysis the reason of financial risk of these companies by using statistical descriptionof principal component analysis.Investors can use this model to recognize the investing risk of ChiNext stockmarket more comprehensively, then it can help investors reduce losses of investment. And as a new investment field, the research has high value in financial risk predictionof manufacturing industry in ChiNext stock market. Meanwhile as the largest industryof ChiNext stock market, the risk research of this industry also have great referencesignificance for the risk research of ChiNext stock market.