The Research Of Real Estate’s Liquid Investment Decisions-making Based On The Grey Real Option

In recent years, the rapid development of real estate industry in our country and thehouse prices continue to rise, affect the improvement of people’s living standard. Thegovernment strengthen the macro-control, issued continuously policies that contain "buy limit, restricted to the loan, restrict the price" in order to make real estate industry tothe science orbit of health development, and maintaining social harmony and stability in2011, which makes the real estate market appear "sales slow, house prices fall".Relevant data shows the real estate enterprise’s inventory increase quickly, debt ratio ishigh, enterprise’s liquidity tight, make risk higher and higher. The key question is: howto use limited capital scientifically and reasonably to investment uncertain environment,to grasp the investment opportunities, to make it be used fully, to create a bigger profit.The real estate liquidity refers to the real estate enterprise holding liquidity assets.In the strict, it is the cash and the cash equivalents of a enterprise. Besides the bookvalue, it contains some potential value. This paper also illustrates specifically thedifferent and connection between the traditional investment theory and the real optiontheory, and points out the fault of the traditional investment theory. Using binary treeand risk neutral pricing principle determine the value of liquidity. Second, this papermodifies and improves the theory of the value of liquidity real option based on the realoption pricing theory parameters and the hypothesis combining with the actual optionreal estate market in China, applying of grey clustering of comprehensive evaluationmethod to influence other influencing factors of the put value evaluation, and theliquidity value of the real option. At last, this paper builds the decision-making model ofreal estate investment liquidity based on the perspective of real options. According to the model, this paper calculates the liquidity options value and applies of the real optionmethod of project investment far the net present value of the total value of traditionalmethod of the value of the project from example.It is benefit for effective management of managers to evaluate enterprise liquiditythe real estate liquidity options value analysis and study, and opened the new ideas andnew methods of related research. Above all, this paper has important theory referenceand practical significance.