Consider The Decision Risk And Time-based Parameter And Solution Newsboy Problem Model

The industrialization of our country had not been completed, in the future,manufacturing industry will still support China’s national economy for a very long timeand is one of the pillars of China’s national economy fast and continuous development.Because of the influence of the traditional consciousness, supply chainmanagement is underappreciated in manufacturing enterprise, that lead to the marketdemand is not in conformity with the production plan, eventually leading to the productstructure convergence, enterprise supply chain absolute overproduction and socialproduct relative surplus, cause serious waste of resources and enterprise profit margin.Therefore, strengthens the enterprise supply chain of research and investment, caneffectively solve the existing problems of the manufacturing industry in our country,and lead manufacturing sustainable development. Classic newsboy problem, also knownas a single cycle inventory problem (single-period problem), is one of the importantmodel in the supply chain management model.Traditional newsboy model main consideration of the maximum expected profit orminimum expected cost in a certain period, this method is more suitable for the riskneutral decision makers who is not sensitive to the change of profit or cost, but not forrisk aversion type of decision makers. In the traditional newsboy model, the generalassumption is that demand is random variables, according to decision-theory we canknow that decision-makers always is in a security risk condition when they make achoice for a not sure results. Therefore, when the decision maker in supply chain arerisk averse, a natural method is introduced into measuring criterion of risk aversion,measure the magnitude of risk and make the optimal risk decision.According to the economics theory, the price is a very important factor that affectthe demand. If put the demand, price and time together to study, understanding therelationship of them will help enterprises to made a more scientific decision. This paperconsider the retailers are risk aversion, and the mathematics model of newsboy problemwith time-based wholesale price and time-based variance of demand. And use numericalmethods to get the optimal ordering time and ordering quantity. Through the numericalinstance, the retailer orders more in advance, the larger the order, the greater the income.Therefore, this paper consider risk factor base on the wholesale price and demandforecasting precision (variance) changes with time, construct mathematical model, and get the optimal order quantity, for the decision maker in supply chain make a reasonable,favorable decision provides theory basis.