Based On The Analysis Of Arima Model Consumer Goods Company Budget Management

With the increasingly fierce competition in consumer goods industry, the enterprise wishes to budget future revenue and expenditure accurately to achieve profit benefit targets by taking precautionary measures to avoid potential risks and changes of external factors. Jie Ya is a consumer goods company. To expand market and achieve sales targets, the budget of sales promotion will be made for different products and seasons each year. Jie Ya company need one kind of scientific method to make promotion budget, but the current method of budget management of Jie ya is not scientific foundation and accuracy, that is roughly made by managers based on the method of qualitative analysis or experiences. As a result, the rough estimation might cause large fluctuation between budget plan and the actual execution budget. What’s more, it also leads to the difficulty of controlling business budget.The ARIMA model, one important method of time series analysis, is applied in the data mining of the promotion budget management to resolve the current issues of the Jie Ya company. The current status of un-scientific budget management of consumer goods company and existing issues as well as the factors affecting the budget are examined carefully at first. Then, a scientific and accurate promotion budget solution with the help of ARIMA model based on the theoretical knowledge of ARIMA model of data mining technology, budget management and the integration of the demand of promotion budget is proposed:Through data processing of sales revenue data series, including data preparation and observation data characteristic as well as stationary processing and testing are carried out. Then identification the model and analysis the characteristic of these data to get the parameter of ARIMA (p, q, d) model for the stationary data series of sales revenue and choose the optimal model. Sales revenue is forecast using this model and 5%of the revenue is extracted as the budget planning. By comparing the plan with the actual value and other similar system as well as examining the feedback of applying result of ARIMA model, it is found that the combination of ARIMA model and budget management is applicable and necessary.