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The Research About The Relationship Between China’s Import Consumer Goods And Domestic Consumer Goods Based On The Intertemporal Optimal Consumption Theory

Posted on:2013-04-22Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:X N XuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330371468121Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Consumption is one of the most important factors which promote economic growth. As an important endogenous variable, it’s very useful in the theory of modern economy. Many scholars do some deep research about consumption in different perspective. However, the analysis about import consumer products is not enough. At present, appreciation of the RMB is very fast, and the purchasing power is increased when face to import consumer products. Tariff levels also become lower than before. Those factors can promote the consumption of import consumer products. What’s more, the consumers turn to import consumption goods because of the problem of Chinese food safety in recent years. So we want to know that whether the import consumption goods crowed out domestic consumption, even affect employment and economic development of China. According to this problem, this paper analyze the behavior of the Chinese residents about the import consumer goods and the domestic consumer goods based on the intertemporal optimal consumption theory and get the relationship between import consumer goods and domestic consumer goods. And then giver some policy suggestion about Chinese external tariff adjustment, and import structure optimization etc.Consumption is divided into Import consumer goods consumption and domestic consumer goods in this paper. We expand the intertemporal optimal consumption model with constant relative risk aversion utility function. We solve the Consumption optimal planning and get the first-order and cross intertemporal optimal first-order conditions. And then get the cointegration relationship between import consumer goods and domestic consumer goods.This paper uses cointegration theory to examine the existence and uniqueness of cointegration relationship. The method of fully modified ordinary least squares is used to estimate the cointegration function, which can overcome the weakness of OLS when estimate the limited sample. We use monthly data of the domestic consumer goods and the import consumer goods of Chinese residents to make cointegrating regression. The results show that the intratemporl elasticity of substitution between import consumer goods and domestic consumer goods is0.409and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of domestic consumer goods is1.168during1993and2001. During2002and2010, the intratemporl elasticity of substitution between import consumer goods and domestic consumer goods is0.561and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of domestic consumer goods is1.439. Their is a complementary relationship between import consumer goods and domestic consumer goods of China. Although some exogenous factors such like the current yuan appreciation, tariffs decline can increase the consumption of import consumer goods, the complementary relationship between import consumer goods and domestic consumer goods can promote the consumption of domestic consumer goods in the long term. The complementary relationship between import consumer goods and domestic consumer goods can provides a good stimulative effect to Chinese economic which need to expend the demand for consumption urgently.
Keywords/Search Tags:Intertemporal optimal consumption, Intratemporl elasticiy ofsubstitution, Cross-intertemporal elasticity of substitution, FMOLS
PDF Full Text Request
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