Guizhou Province Agricultural Prices Prediction Research

Guizhou Integrated Rural Information Service Center establishesmarket information collection points in nearly 200 farmers’ markets, morethan 500 agriculture-related enterprises and more than 80agriculture-related units of Guizhou Province since 2001. It can add tensof thousands of price information records of agricultural products, butsuch a large data system has not been used and developed as good resources.By the preliminary study, we find that the potential number of economicdata complete potential of economic laws, if we can achieve a betterdevelopment of forecasting the future prices of agricultural marketproducts, then it can guide the adjustment of industrial structure andcan better serve the Guizhou " Three Rural " .In this paper, we study the agricultural price formation mechanismand pork market price forecasting model of Guizhou Province; its maintasks are summarized as follows.First, using the prices of agricultural products of the formationmechanism and fluctuation mechanism to study about the pork market priceinfluencing factors of Guizhou Province. Basing on the pork market pricedata in Guizhou Province from January 2010 to December 2011, using theBalanced Supply and Demand Principle and the spider web theory model ofeconomics and other agricultural price formation mechanism andfluctuation mechanism, establishing the establishment of DoubleLogarithmic Model of Measurement Econometric to study the fluctuationsof the main influencing factors of the pork price.Second, building the model of short-term forecast of the price of porkin Guizhou Province. In this paper, we build the ARIMA Model, the ARCHModel and the VAR Model of pork price short - term forecasting in GuizhouProvince, by comparative analysis fit and prediction accuracy of thisthree models, selecting the appropriate model to predict the future pricetrend, and through the empirical analysis of the test the feasibility andrationality of the model proposed model recommendations for improvement .Third, analyzing the agricultural price control policies in GuizhouProvince. On the basis of the above quantitative analysis, analyzing theagricultural price control policies in Guizhou Province, and put forward relevant proposals, hoping to provide a research basis for the developmentof agricultural markets in Guizhou Province.In summary, this paper study the prices of agricultural productsformation mechanism and influencing factors of the fluctuation mechanismand the market price of pork in Guizhou Province ; selecting the bestshort-term forecasting model of pork prices in Guizhou Province,analyzing the feasibility and rationality of the model through thedemonstration.