The Scale And Risk Research Of The Municipal Bonds

In recent years, the process of our country’s urbanization is getting more and more quickly, and the regional governments financial can not meet the huge demand of infrastructure construction funds. To make up the shortfall, regional governments have to seek outside financing, which the city investment company issuance municipal bonds in the capital markets becomes a kind of new pattern. Along with the explosive growth of the regional government debt, the expiry risk is gradually valued by the community. So, the studying of the municipal bonds is valueable for the realistic society and theoretical studying.At present, most researchs about municipal bonds in our country focused on the necessity and significancity of issuing municipal bonds, also few discuss how to establish and develop the municipal bond market. However, restricted by China’s municipal bond development in the initial stage, the use of mathematical demonstration method for the size of the bond issue of almost no, in addition to the credit risk research also stay in the theoretical analysis. Therefore, this paper uses regression analysis the factors which influence the size of the bond, to achieve the empirical breakthroughs, and judge the credit risk on the basis of factors mentiongded, to provide a new perspective for regional governments to make decision.In this paper, on the basis of the appropriate-scale-theory of municipal bonds, this paper analyze the factors influencing the scale of issuing municipals, convincing that regional finance income, the regional GDP, fiscal deficit have distinct effect on the scale and local finance income is the most important factor. On the empirical analysis result,this paper uses the modified credit risk measure model of KMV for municipal bonds measure credit risk of the representative provinces of the Eastern, central, western province, and judge the regional credit risk. Then, this paper make recommendations on how to promote the development of the municipal bonds, including the improvement of legal system construction, enhancing the development of financing main body, establishing a rating system etc. Finally, this paper put forward the future research directions after summarying the research contents and insufficient foundation.