| This paper, via several mathematical modeling approaches, built models for agricultural development. The data presented in the paper derives totally from statistical yearbook either of the nation or Hubei province. Firstly, the analysis concerning the contribution of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery on agricultural development with the aid of conjoint analytical approach was exerted; then, a time sequence model was built through statistical method, including long-term equilibrium model and short-term dynamic model. Lastly, a optimization model regarding the agricultural structure adjustment is built, as regards to the specific developmental status quo in Hubei province.The first part expounds on each industry’s contribution to agriculture in Hubei province by quantitative analysis. Using MATLAB, it calculates the contribution and makes a simple comparison. The conclusion is:in our province, the correlation order between gross output value of agriculture and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery is fishery> forestry>animal husbandry> cultivating agriculture.The second part analyses the relationship between the total output value of all these industries and each of them and gives the quantitative results, first, all time series data stabilities have been estimated through three methods.They are classified as scatterplot chart inspection, sample autocorrelation function test, unit root test(including DF inspection, ADF test). Through the inspection, all the time series is nonstationary.Then we inspect it with the single whole and cointegration test. Through the inspection, there exists a long-term stable equilibrium between the total output value of all these industries and animal husbandry,fishery.The model is:ln zczt=1.829902ln mczt-0.743727ln ycztECM:Δln zczt=0.606452A ln mczt+0.157700Δln yczt-0.296243ΔIn zczt-1Agriculture, animal husbandry:ln zczt=0.596341ln nczt-0.124812ln mcztECM:Δln zczt=0.657359A ln nczt+0.283967Δln mczt+0.035681Δln zczt-1All the models above are of high goodness-of-fit and have a good feasibility and effectiveness, with larger T and F statistics and higher P value. At last, it sets up a optimization model of agricultural industry structure.The conclusion is:planting industry changes the single planting structure, cuts food crops’ growing area reasonably, extends the growing area of vegetables, oil crops effectively, growing area reasonably, extends the growing area of vegetables, oil crops effectively, which have comparative advantages in regional economy, sets up a planting structure characterized by high quality food, efficient economic crops and forage crops. Optimizing livestock and poultry structure in the animal husbandry. Promoting large-scale farming, improving efficiency and reducing the cost. In addition, takingthe feature that our province has many a lake and the result of optimized model into consideration,the proposal is to develop the fresh water fishery in order to form scale merit. |
