| In recent years, with the rapid development of Chinese economy, Chinese stock market is tending perfect. The selection of unstable stock has been the research for investors and researchers. Technical analysis is becoming an important financial market investment analysis school as a predictor of future price. Investment analysts and some scholars are paying more attention to the content that how to select an unstable stock. Because the unstable stocks are more like to be a bull stock. However, the selection of stock is a complex issue, it takes account of factors to judge whether it is a good choice. In the investment, the development of the company and the profit should be considered on the basis of analysis, and the technical indicators and graphics should be taken into account in the technical analysis. It’s difficult for an individual investor, particularly for short-term investors. Investment opportunities is vary from minute to minute, it’s hard to make a correct decision in a short term without a fixed investment basis. Based on this, this paper proposes a reference method of unstable stocks selection for short-term investor, and prove it from the aspects of statistics which would provide a reference for investors and scholars who interest in it.This paper has studied20unstable stocks which unusual acted in2009to2010. The research showed there were gold cross of RSI and MACD index before the price of stock went up. In the mean while, the exchange rate analysis proved the5days exchange rate had an abnormal change before price went up. According to the phenomenon, this paper provided a simple way to choose stocks and proved the efficiency combined with Bootstrap method. The results indicate that in the bull market investors would obtain excess return when made use of this method, while in bear market and concussion stock market the effectiveness is not good. The conclusion of this paper provided evidence for investors and related researcher on the other hand. |
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