Research Of Global Supply Chain Return Contract In The Rate Forecast Mechanism

In the global supply chain, the Capital flow must to go through the foreign exchange market, the multinational enterprise in global supply chain had face risks due to the rate fluctuations of foreign exchange market. In the process which use of return contract to coordinate global supply chain, we must consider the problem how to effectively avoid the risks which due to the rate fluctuations, because of the order and return in two time node need payment. Through introduction the rate prediction method, could reduce the risks which due to the rate fluctuation and coordination the global supply chain.The first chapter mainly introduced the research background, significance, the literature review and the main research contents, etc.The second chapter has described the basic model and theory of global supply chain management and supply chain return contract. Briefly reviews the existing research on global supply chain and the supply chain return contract documents. Prospect the development tendency and hotspot for studying the supply chain return contracts.The third chapter has considered a global supply chain return contract in the floating rate system. Through introduce a rate prediction method, had design an effective return contract to coordinate the supply chain member’s decision, so that retailer’s order quantity would equal to the centralized model’s order quantity. Through the numerical simulation analysis found that the supply chain had coordinate and the expected profit with suppliers is proportional to return price, and the expected profit with retailers inversely to return prices.The fourth chapter had researched when the market environment are price dependent demand, use the rate forecast method in the global supply chain return contract and establish the model. Gives out the retailer’s optimal retail price and the optimal order quantity, also gives out the suppliers optimal wholesale price and optimal returns price. Through numerical simulation analysis found:because of the forecast cost, when the wholesale price is greater than a particular value the supplier and retailer use return contract will increased it’s profits.The fifth chapter had researched use the foreign exchange options in the return contract to coordinate global supply chain and establish the model. Gives out the retailer’s optimal retail price and the optimal order quantity, also gives out the suppliers optimal wholesale price and optimal returns price. Through numerical simulation analysis found: under the floating exchange rate system, use the foreign exchange options in return contract will make the supplier and retailer’s expected profit increase.