A Research Into The Stimulation Of China’s Export Tax Rebate Policy

To begin with, on the basis of review of theories and the existing research about export tax rebate, this dissertation analyzed the impact of export tax rebate policy on China’s export and discovered that:1.The expansion of China’s export is quite sensitive to the increase of export tax rebate. The growth of export is quite dependent on the export tax rebate policy.2.The growth rate of export and the average export tax rebate rate are similar in tendency, which means when the export tax rebate rate is relatively high or on an increase, the export grows quickly; otherwise the export grows rather slow.3.The structural adjustment of export tax rebate policy has promoted the optimization of China’s export commodity structure.4. The calculation and analysis of TC Index indicates the influence of export tax rebate policy on the change of exported commodities’competitive advantages. Next, in the part of empirical analysis, applying the method of co-integration test, this dissertation estimated the long-term influence of the alteration of export tax rebate rate on the alteration of each industry’s export growth rate. The co-integration test was based on the monthly data from2004to2010under the frame of SITC-one-number industries. Besides, variance decomposition of VAR-model was used to inspect the time lag of policy adjustment. In this part, the dissertation found that:1.As for SITCO, SITC1and SITC4, export tax rebate policy is not quite effective unless it is combined with industry policy and exchange rate policy.2.As for SITC2and SITC3, export tax rebate policy can be applied as a steady policy. In the long run, the decline of export tax rebate rate can effectively inhibit the fast increase of export.3.As for SITC5, SITC6, SITC7and SITC8, export tax rebate policy can also be applied as a steady policy. In the long term, the increase of export can be effectively boosted by the rise of export tax rebate rate. Furthermore, SITC87, SITC84, SITC75and SITC33were selected respectively on behalf of technology-intensive industry, labor-intensive industry, capital-intensive industry and resource-intensive industry. Applying the method of co-integration test, this dissertation estimated the long-term influence of the alteration of export tax rebate rate on the alteration of each industry’s export growth rate. Variance decomposition of VAR-model was used to inspect the time lag of policy adjustment. In this part, the dissertation found that:1.As for technology-intensive industry and capital-intensive industry, export tax rebate policy can be applied as a steady policy. In the long run, the rise of export tax rebate rate can effectively stimulate the increase of export.2. As for resource-intensive industry, export tax rebate policy can also be applied as a long-term policy. In order to regulate the increase of export, we should see to it that timely update of policy is ensured.3.As for labor-intensive industry, the policy promotes export in the short run but inhibits it in the long run. As a result, export tax rebate policy can only be applied as a temporary and transitional policy. Last but not least, on the basis of the analysis above, some suggestions on policy adjustment for the future were given as a conclusion.