The Empirical Study Of Factors Influence Gold Price In China

The gold price which contains double attributes-a commodity as well as a currency was relatively stable before1970s.Because it was no longer bound up with US dollar,its price was dramaticly changed,from$30per ounce in the early1970s to$1900per ounce.Many people were interested of the gold price-why its price changed so much. In addition, due to the particularity of gold, many domestic and foreign scholars did empirical and theoretical researches on the change of the gold price.From the last few years,for China,not only the gold output but also the gold demand are both the first in the world.So,researching the factors influencing gold price in China has certain theoretical and practical significance.This article proceeds with the background of development situation of gold and focuses on international and domestic factors which influence gold price.And we do a empirical study what factors influence gold price in China.There are five parts in this article. The first chapter is introduction which is mainly about background, research ideas, methods and innovation. Based on the relationship of international gold price and domestic gold price,the second chapter introduces the international pricing mechanism as well as the development of the domestic gold market situation, and analyzes the domestic present situation. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis that is mainly about the factors influencing the international gold price and domestic gold price.From the studies at home and abroad, the gold price is relevant to gold supply and demand, US dollar, oil, CPI, macroeconomic conditions and some other factors. Aiming at factors influencing gold price,the fourth chapter does a empirical research.Through the analysis,we select the appropriate index.First we examine these indexes with a ADF test, a colinearity test and the Granger causality test, and then select the appropriate index to build the VAR model.At last we test stationarity of the model in order to detennine the accuracy of the model.The last chapter is conclusion and suggestion.The empirical research shows that the domestic price of gold is relevant to not only its own price but also the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, GDP and entrepreneurs confidence index. According to the four indexes of the Granger causality test, we can furtherly confirm a direct causal relationship between these indexes and the gold price. In the last of this chapter, because our country does not have the gold pricing problems, we analyse the international and domestic conditions.and give some own proposal to seek gold pricing power for our countryBased on the empirical study on the factors affecting the gold price,we determine several major factors impacting on China’s gold price,at the same time to our country gold discourse we also give the corresponding suggestions. Due to the complexity of the factors affecting the gold price and the special national condition of our country, we have to do a further study. In addition, the research gives a direction of further study,for example, the gold reserve ratio problems in China, and how to better the standardization and development of China’s gold market.All of this,the purpose is providing more favorable conditions for our country to seek the pricing power to gold.