Multiple Linear Regression Empirical Analysis Of The RMB Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is a market economy countries must be attention of economic factors. Exchange rate is relationship with stability of the country’s economy especially the financial market. History lessons and experiences of many countries that blind, and not be prudent management or forced to bow to pressure the exchange rate reform has greatly affected the country’s economy, financial market stability. For example the JNP on the "plaza agreement", and southeast Asia financial market reforms of the98financial crisis, etc. These are our history is worth using for reference of the case. At the same time exchange rate may also become the means of foreign economic plunder. As one of symbol of national economic sovereignty exchange rate system and exchange rate decision mechanism must be insisted on independence, seeking truth from facts, theory and combined with the actual economic principles.Based on background of the history analysis, the influence of the RMB exchange rate changes of relevant factors theory analysis and through the China and the United States had the RMB exchange rate changes are likely to the related factors and the data of the multiple linear regression empirical analysis found that in China’s economic strength development under the background of enhanced, the RMB rise against the dollar is inevitable. But to western countries are accused of China’s growing huge trade surplus should prompt the RMB to appreciate this reason, this article through to the economic structure and trade statistics and regression analysis to the macro analysis results of China’s trade surplus is found that the appreciation of the RMB should be one of the factors, but it is not the only reason, more is not important reasons. Which with the currency rise of the RMB does not exist strong necessary causality. In the RMB to appreciate the trend of internal and external environment, the government should ensure that the value of the RMB’s rise are steady and healthy, and keep the economy with the steady and healthy development is very important. Thus the government in economic policy adjustment to the combination of multi-level various, pay attention to a variety of economic policy coordination, can’t follow external demand, ensure the independence of the RMB exchange rate set and actual situation, and promote the stable economic growth.