The Warning Research Of Chinese Medicine Companies Financial Crisis Based On The BP Neural Network

With the rapid development of commodity economy, market competitionl is ncreasingly fierce.Enterprise is always facing the threat be eliminated. The financial crisis affecting survival, profit, and the development is the most direct and most important factor.In order to survive, profit,development and to avoid being eliminated by the market,companies must continue to strengthen its own management, remove risk factor affecting the company’s survival and development, so as to stand firm in the market for a long time.In recent years,China’s pharmaceutical industry is developing rapidly. Pharmaceutical market size is increasing at a rapid growth rate of14%-17%.The Chinese pharmaceutical market is expected to become the pharmaceutical market after the United States.However, the pharmaceutical industry is a weak cycle industry, along with the typical characteristics of the "three high"-High investment, High-risk,High returns.After2012,China’s overall economic slowdown, the upward trend of the cost of drugs has become more obvious. At present, China has entered the pharmaceutical industry structural adjustment in the crucial period of transformation and upgrading of the country doctor to change it into the medicine separate from the Sham Shui Po District.Faced with increasingly fierce market competition and squeezing of the national policy,some smaller and lack of management ability of the pharmaceutical factories and commercial pharmaceutical companies will be eliminated,the entire pharmaceutical industry will face re-shuffle.Therefore, the listed companies of China’s pharmaceutical industry financial crisis early warning is forced in eyebrow.This article establishing BP neural network of Financial crisis warning model is for Listed Companies of China’s pharmaceutical industry.I select2008-2010listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock pharmaceutical companies as research objects. I read a lot of domestic and international financial crisis early warning research literature,and organize the literature.I selected the45indicators (including financial and non financial indicators)on the basis of previous research, and divide the listed company’s financial position into three police degree:healthy, mild crisis, severe crisis.This article builds short-term BP neural network early-warning model for the pharmaceutical industry in China listed companies,they’re a year ahead of the BP neural network financial distress prediction model, and two years ahead of the financial crisis early warning of the BP neural network model.For primaries of45indicators, I will do non-parametric test, factor analysis, and get (t-1) BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model input,get(t-2) BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model input, then design and construct the BP neural network. We trained and test the established BP neural network,the result showed that abilitys of the (t-1) BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model and of the(t-2) BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model are more satisfactory.And by comparison,we find that the (t-1) BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model is better than the (t-2) BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model.In a word,the BP neural network’s prediction ability is ideal,it can help the managers of listed companies and corporate investors, creditors as soon as possible to find that the financial crisis and as soon as possible to make the appropriate measures.At the end of this article,I use the trained (t-1)BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model and (t-2)BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model to simulation predictions "FengyuanPharmaceutical"2008-2010Financial position.The simulation results show that the (t-1) BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model can identify2008to2010financial position of the Fengyuan Pharmaceutical all the correct,the (t-2) BP neural network financial crisis early-warning model made an error when identify2008to2010financial position of the Fengyuan Pharmaceutical.At the same time,I took Fengyuan Pharmaceutical data indicators in2010predict its financial position of2011and of2012.