Financial Cge Model And Housing Credit Policy In Yunnan Province

Computerable General Equilibrium model, for short is CGE model. It is an effectivetool which is used to research economic complex system and analyses policy. Differentfrom econometric model, CGE model has a solid foundation of economic theory. It putsthe economic agent, commodity market and factor market through a price signal togetherorganically. This not only reflects the function of market mechanism, but also thecomplex link and interaction among different economic agent in economic system. Onthe chain of CGE model, if a factor is changed, other factors of the whole system will beaffected directly or indirectly. At present CGE model has been widely studied andapplied in the world. This push CGE models to move forward.This paper builds Yunnan financial CGE model on the basis of the domestic andinternational research on CGE model, and compile Yunnan Financial Social AccountingMatrix (SAM) with the data from Yunnan input-output tables、Statistical Yearbook andso on. On that basis, this paper gets a housing policy simulation, and analyses theinfluence to Yunnan economy from the change of loan interest rate. This paper is dividedinto six chapters. Specific chapters as follows:The first chapter is introduction. It includes the study background、mentality、theinnovation and weak point. The second chapter is the financial CGE model literaturereview, includes the introduction of CGE model、 the developing history of CGEmodel、the basic structures of CGE model and the study of domestic and internationalfinancial CGE model. The third chapter establish Yunnan Financial CGE model, andgives seven modules in the model, includes: production module、price module、trademodule、income module、expenditure module、financial module and balance module.The forth chapter compiles Yunnan Financial Social Accounting Matrix and determinesthe parameter. This part gives the data base of Yunnan financial CGE model. This refersto financial social accounting matrix. Firstly, to make an introduction of SAM; secondly,to compiles Yunnan Financial SAM based on the data from Yunnan input-outputtables、Statistical Yearbook and other reference-books; thirdly, to balance SAM and determine the parameter with calibration method. The fifth chapter is housing creditpolicy simulation. According to loan interest rate in our country, this part gives threescenarios simulation. With the results of the simulation, this paper analyses the influenceto Yunnan economy from the change of loan interest rate. The sixth chapter is summaryand outlook includes the summary for the full text、the development and improvementof financial CGE model.