The Analysis And Forecasting Of China’s Price Fluctuation

Price volatility refers to the fluctuations in the overall price level, it reflects all the goods and services at different times of relative price changes in the number of levels, all commodity prices is a social dynamic comprehensive indexes. In this paper, method of climate index fluctuations of price trends, climate index method is the starting point of the field of price fluctuations in the index is not the same place, but the economic indicators influence each other, related areas and gradually spread to the process of mutual penetration. Select the field can be sensitive to price fluctuations reflect the trend of price, volatility typical morphology, are important economic indicators of economic change, the use of mathematical methods measure the price fluctuations Woguo first, consistent with the first diffusion index, the coincident composite index, consistent proliferation and a turning point analysis of the coincident composite index fluctuations in the price of the actual trend of the first use of diffusion and the preparation of the first composite index to predict a turning point in the future trend of price fluctuations.HDI methods used internationally to determine the date of the benchmark price fluctuations, the consumer price index as the analysis of price fluctuations in the benchmark economy, by the time difference correlation and B-B method selected money supply, production costs, consumption, investment, raw material reserves, and other aspects of the indicators into leading indicators and agreed targets, using the same indicators to determine baseline date, the use of first, first compilation of indicators consistent, coherent and leading diffusion index, coincident composite index, combined with China in recent years, the macro-Price fluctuations in the economy boom of China.Price boom through the various stages of analysis, respectively, the proliferation index and the composite index can reflect the situation of price fluctuations; first, consistent with proliferation index and the composite index of economic prosperity on the transfer point or turning point for the next peak or valley of the price boom The reference date for the difference are relatively stable. Building on this basis, the price fluctuations in our VAR model, July2010-2011in December the first, composite index to do the same diffusion index forecasting future volatility trend, that China’s current economic situation is good, and then combine our current economic analysis, for the price of this round of economic expansion and lay a solid foundation. Finally, a conclusion based on the prices proposed for the stability of a reasonable policy recommendations.