An Study On Consumer Credit Risk Of The Construction Bank S City Branch Based On Logistic Regression

Consumer credit business in China started late. After1990’s, with the policy guidance of promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, promoting the economic development, commercial bank consumer credit business going into a rapid growth stage. With the constant expansion of consumer credit, the risk of its existence gradually revealed. The most importance is the lack of t credit environment, legal basis and risk management system. At present, how to effectively prevent and dissolve the consumption credit risk has become urgent.The S-city branch of Construction bank is earlier open consumer credit business among the commercial Banks of S city,which market share is more than40%. In recent years, in response to the fierce competition, this bank the rapid expand the consumer credit business, leading to the consumer credit business expansion and hidden huge risk situation. So for construction bank S city branch,the studies how to improve the effectiveness of consumer credit risk assessment, improve consumer credit risk management mode and enhance consumer credit risk control of ability have the important meaning.This paper first expounded to choose background and research significance. Through the study of domestic and foreign consumer credit risk theory, especially about personal credit risk, this paper concluded the research methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis with Logistic regression.Secondly, this paper introduces the definition of consumer credit risk and main types, and analysis the main causes of the consumer credit. The paper also summarizes the management mode of consumer credit risk, in order to guide the consumer credit risk management of construction bank S city branch. In this chapter, we also point that the major aspects of the present stage of consumer credit risk management is personal credit risk management. Then, we introduce the development of the consumer credit, the types of business and the various business risk management mode in the construction bank S city branch. We also analysis the main risk of consumer credit.Again, we establish the personal credit score models of construction bank S city branch with the Logistic regression,in order to assess the personal credit risk.Finally, through the analysis of consumer credit risk of construction bank S city branch, we put forward the consumer credit risk management advice.