Study On The Influence Of FDI On The Fluctuation Of TFP In Agricultural Sector

China is known as a big agricultural country in the world, but not a strong one. In order to promote the development of agriculture, the "No.1Document" focus on agriculture for seven consecutive years since2004. There performs a significant effect of financial support on agriculture. We should note that China continues the extensive mode of development in agriculture sector, technology contribution is quite small as is compared with developed countries. On one hand, the Classical Economic theory tells us that poor countries can catch up with the former ones by means of funds with high technics from outside; On the other hand, the transition period after entering WTO has ended since the end of2006, and lagged effects of opening up the agricultural sector should be revealed gradually. What is more, FDI has two-si de-effect and it remind us not to get the conclusions arbitrarily. In this context, it is of great importance to identify the impact of FDI on TFP in China’s agricultural sector.As for the theoretical analysis, this article first decompose agricultural TFP into technical efficiency, technological progress and scale efficiency under thetochastic frontier perspective, and then find that FDI affect agricultural TFP mainly through both direct and indirect mechanisms. We emphasize that FDI motivation and host strategic technological absorptive capacity play decisive roles, and only achieve the perfect combination can agricultural be successfully achieved. Then, we build an economic regression model that include both direct and indirect mechanisms for technology spillovers of FDI, and introduce the nonlinear panel threshold model to accurately grasp the technological absorption capacity of dynamic evolution of agricultural TFP. After this, we carries out the empirical research:on the one hand, we estimates and decomposes the evolutionary process of agricultural TFP of the12provinces in major grain-producing areas from1999to2009; on the other hand, we examines the impact of FDI on agricultural TFP and its decomposition from both overall and provincal levels. The results showed that:agricultural TFP performs a step change in the trend, technological progress is the main source of increase of agricultural TFP, technical efficiency and scale efficiency has negative impacts on TFP, and12provinces show different agricultural TFP envolutionary tendences; Overall, FDI contributed to the optimization of agricultural TFP in grain-producing areas, but significant differences exists not only in size but also in signs for provincial regression results; the threshold panel regression results indicate that the differences of the size of FDI inflows, agricultural tech of FDI, agricultural trade openness, the absorptive capacity of advanced technology, machinery and fertilizer inputs, and supporting infrastructure among provinces results in the circumstances.Based on the above study, this article reveals the basic research findings in the last chapter, and brings forward constructive policy recommendations to promote intensive and sustainable development for agricultural sector in China...