Empirical Testing On China’s Securities Analyst Earnings Forecast"Optimistic Tendency" And Genetic Analysis

Securities analysts as a professional analysts in the capital market, they no doubt are a special group. Listed company’s operating and financial data they collect and analyze information collected way better than retail investors and professional analysis capabilities; to capital market participants and some non-participants, providing information to reflect the value of securities and investment reduce the stock in the stock market price level of deviation. They promote the effectiveness of operation of the market, their presence makes the Chinese capital market closer to an efficient capital market, and helps improve the capital market and to urge the company to improve corporate governance structure, but also conducive to the regulatory authorities to strengthen supervision. Securities analysis report as an analyst to transmit information of the most important tool and carrier, and their quality is no substitute for the role of stabilizing the stock market.Along with the academic community is increasingly concerned about the analysis of securities analysts, many scholars have proposed to our analysts’ earnings forecasts exist optimistic tendency "hypothesis and conjecture, and if this tendency exists, then on the necessary concern to us. The analyst’s optimistic about the tendency in the market is very easy to form a positive feedback to promote mechanisms, which to some extent the market higher overall price level, the formation of the stock market irrational bubble. For example, Miller (2002) pointed out that the U.S. stock market’s Internet bubble in the late20th century part of the reason attributed to the tendency of analysts’ reports to guide and promote. In China, the stock market just is not yet mature, non-rational investors easier to take act to follow suit, the so-called "herding", with optimistic tendencies Securities analyst report on China’s securities market will be more serious than the U.S. impact and consequences.But for now, the country almost all the research and analysis on the analysis report "optimistic tendency" are limited in describing the level and the insufficient number of samples in a statistical test of the hypothesis of the rise in the stock market channel, coupled with the immaturity of the market information disclosure quality and other issues.therefore not enough people results fully convinced of the scholars hypotheses to empirical test is necessary to determine whether this foreign optimistic tendency hypothesis really exist in the Chinese stock market, and find the main factors causing optimistic tendencies and for testing.In this paper, a test of the four years2008-2011, the analyst forecast data obtained in the non-increase in the stock market channel inspection, optimistic tendencies do exist. Analyze optimistic about the tendency of analysts group identity reasons, and based on behavioral finance theory for the simple reason to explore. Securities analyst tower and information centers in the securities industry, the existence of the original uncertainty of the stock market, securities analyst at work will encounter some difficult to deal with professional issues and difficult to get along with customers. The performance of securities analysts, professional quality and professionalism and self-awareness. The requirements of the market for securities analysts is relatively high, the behavior of securities analysts also cause some positive or negative impact on the market. Analysts objective information to receive the optimism exists, the analyst subjective judgment of the weight of the high state of existence, as well as untrue intent motivated judgment, is the main reason for the optimistic tendency.Thus to regulators, investors, securities analysts, rating agencies, securities companies and other market participants and regulators to provide the possibility of strengthening the management and increase the return on investment. The one hand, to provide investors with a basis for reference, prompting investors to analysts to provide the judgment and use of information to enable investors to maintain adequate vigilance and caution are the forecasts of securities analysts in the investment decision-making process, which to some extent on the foam and risk mitigation that may exist; more important is that he can provide specific policy advice to the industry norms and behavior of China’s securities market regulators and analysts team. For example, as soon as possible to isolate these factors, strict industry specifications to the independence of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, to maintain the dominant position of the analyst, the protection of the independence of analysts. Earnings forecasts, as one of the main analysis report, as an easy to quantify the number of indicators, can become an important tool for test analysis report.Therefore we can say that the empirical analysis of recent years, China’s securities analyst earnings forecast "optimistic tendency and its influencing factors, whether from an academic point of view or angle has important and far-reaching significance...