Tourism Crisis Management Based On Copula Theory: Causes, Evaluation And Strategies

First,this article takes to challenge, opportunity, cause of formation and suggestfour perspective reviews the researches on tourism industry are affected by theeconomic crisis; and to influence degree, influence process, influencing factors andCountermeasures of four angles to review of the foreign scholars in the similarproblem research present situation; also introduced Copula theory in financial riskanalysis inApplication Research.Second, followed by the actual data as the support, from tourists, tourismspending growth rate growth rate, tourism income growth rate for angle, studied theeconomic crisis on tourism brings challenges and opportunities, as well as theeconomic crisis is step by step how to slow down the momentum of the developmentof tourism industry, and drew the following conclusions: the economic crisis mainlyby tourism high sensitivity and non-essential consumer goods industry characteristics,weaken our country inbound tourism price advantage, reduce the domestic residents’tourist consumption ability, then hit tourism investor confidence, deterioration oftourism enterprise survival environment.Third,then to the listed tourism companies as examples, using Copula theory anew correlation metric theory, we can describe the tourism index and total operatingincome, net profit, monetary funds, debt and other indicators between the correlationstructure of the optimal Copula, and used to calculate and compare the correlation inthe crisis before and after the change.Finally, according to the calculation results the conclusion: the economic crisisto extend the tourism investment recovery period, increasing the risk of bad debts andcapital chain rupture risk, to reduce the travel market stability. In the aspect ofdecision-making, this paper proposed can be worked out through careful scientificsolutions, capture a country to control the opportunity, solve the key market highlightsproblem and increase tourism enterprises ’ own construction in four aspects to dealwith economic crisis.