The Correlational Study Of Credit Cycle And Economic Cycle

The Great Depression of the1930s has been forcing people to understand bankcredit which has lead tremendous impact to economic activities, new researchescontinue to appear. Before the outbreak of the subprime credit crisis,the credit expandcontinuously, therefore, people pay attention to the volatility of the credit which is thereason of the crisis causes. Than there are more and more researches about creditvolatility including its impact from different perspectives.In order to better explain the relationship between them from the qualitative andquantitative angle, on the basis of theory analysis between financial and economic,credit and economic, this article firstly discusses the mechanism that the creditfluctuations act on economic fluctuations. Secondly, the author divides the credit cycleand economic cycle of our country, comes to the two conclusions: In the first place,find that both are basically the same and wave cycle is anastomotic from the turningpoint of the cycle time and continuous length; In the second place, from wave formperspective, find that loans of the fluctuation of strength and economic fluctuationsstrength closely related,and expansion and contraction of the stage of the credit cycleand the economic cycle stages are basically the same. Then the author selects the loanamount and gross domestic product for the indexes, establishes VAR model, andanalyzes the relationship between them through the two variables co-integrationrelationship, granger causality test, impulse response. The results show that the bankcredit and gross domestic product is the positive correlation, bank credit expansionrises the total amount of the economic; Bank credit has been the significant influencefactors to the economic fluctuations, but whether the economic fluctuations cause thebank credit fluctuations should be discussed in stages, because the bank credit hadendogenous before1994years in China, but the bank credit of exogenous ones in ourcountry slowly increase after1994years. Finally, the author point out thecorresponding policies and suggestions in the ending of the article: In the short termwe should be put forward a good grasp of the supply of credit to prevent economicsharp fluctuations in rhythm; in the long term we should improve financial operationenvironment, to provide more channels for enterprise financing, and ease the pressureof bank credit.