The Statistical Research On The Cause Of China’s Inflatiaon

Inflation have important relationship with a country’s economic and social development. It has always been a hotspot for scholars both at home and abroad. Inflation is a very complex economic phenomena. Although many countries take control inflation as government’s important task, the inflation problem still exists and would periodically appear. Since reform and opening-up, China also occurred many times inflation. In this background discuss the causes of inflation can help us clear the short and long term dynamic equilibrium relationship between inflation and each affecting factors.It also can provide useful advice to control inflation.This paper uses theoretical analysis and empirical analysis’s method to discuss the cause of inflation. First based on summarizing the theory about inflation causes at home and abroad, we proposed this paper’s views. We put the theory of monetary school and the theory of Keynesian school connected, use points digits regression model and VAR model to discuss the internal and external cause of inflation,forecast inflation basing on the P-Star model,get a lot of research achievements. First,both output gap and money gap can affect on inflation.In the long-term equilibrium, output gap has stronger influence than money gap, in the short-term equilibrium, money gap has stronger influence than output gap.Thereaction of inflation is persistent, and can react at output gap and money gap. The second, Money gap fluctuations can affect the output gap strongly,but output gap fluctuations cann’t affect the money gap. It shows that overheating economy can pull money gap strongly. The third,when we make our economic policies, we need to consider the inflation expectations to reduce the negative impact on the economy. The fourth, we want to change our export-oriented economic model,adiust economic development structure, relievee inflationary pressure fundamentally.