Research On The Effect Of Deposit Reserve Rate Change On The Stock Price Of Listed Commercial Banks In China

2011was a bureau year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” in our country. With the weakexternal demand and the rising of political regulation cost, China’s economic growth stillremained fast, and the annual GDP growth of2011rate was9.5%. However, our economyalso exposed a number of potential hazards in the developing process, including overheatedeconomy and the increasing of inflationary pressures. In order to guide the economy towardthe positive direction, the Chinese government began to implement a proactive fiscal policyand prudent monetary policy. The fiscal policy plays more attention to the adjustment ofeconomic structure and the maintaining of the economic growth and the monetary policyplays more attention to the management of inflation expectations.With the development of our national economy and the improvement of the system, thefrequency of adjusting the deposit reserve as a means of monetary policy by the central bank isincreasing, meaning that the statutory deposit reserve ratio has become an important indicatorthat can affect the economic development in China. Our government had adjusted thestatutory deposit reserve ratio for7times in2011, which had never been seen before, and alsoindirectly reflected that China’s current economic situation was very severe.As we all know, banking industry in our country’s economy is playing an increasinglyprominent role and it is becoming our national economy pillar. The influence of depositreserve policy on banking industry is very obvious. In the current background that the strengthof our government adjusting deposit reserve rate has been enhanced, the study of the depositreserve rate changes on the impact of China’s commercial banks is of great significance. Thestock market can indirectly reflect the operation status of listed companies, so we canindirectly know the monetary policy adjustment on the impact of listed banks by studying thechanges of the stock prices of listed banks before and after the deposit reserve rate adjusted. Moreover, this study has the important reference significance on finding out the relationshipbetween tightening monetary policy and stock market price changes.This paper is according to the banking stock index weighted by the listed commercialbank stock price and uses the intervention model analysis method. Firstly, it obtains thepredictive values according to banking stock index before deposit reserve rate changes byusing the ARIMA model, then carry on the analysis according to the error value between thepredictive value and the actual value. finally, it get the specific coefficient of the interventionmodel according to the error value. The empirical results show that listed banking stock indexand deposit reserve rate changes commonly have positive relationship in majority of cases.