Relationship Between Changes In The Rmb Exchange Rate And China’s Import And Export Trade

Since1994, especially after the accession to the WTO, China’s economy has been the rapid growth, and the foreign trade situation has been to maintain a surplus situation. While China’s import and export industry experienced the RMB exchange rate reform in2005and2008the US subprime mortgage crisis, by the double blow of the world economic slows down and increasing trade friction, however, China’s trade balance surplus has not been the slightest impact, has maintained rapid growth momentum. The face of long-term growth of the "double surplus" situation, as well as concerns about China’s rapid economic development, led many countries to especially the United States and Japan, have repeatedly put pressure on our government to launch an attack on the issue of RMB to revalue its currency.in order to ease their domestic economic difficulties.Exchange rate movements on import and export situation of a country or a region to a certain extent already reached a consensus, in theory, many scholars and experts give this issue great concern, and conducted in-depth discussion and study. The topics of this paper is mainly on account of the RMB against the U.S. dollar steady appreciation at the same time, over the same period China’s import and export volume as well as the trade surplus with the United States has been in a growth state, seems to run counter to the traditional theory, then the corresponding United States has been to take undervalued, it seems far-fetched, at the same time, many experts and scholars have argued that the appreciation of the RMB by over3%, the export enterprises will be severely affected, the impact on employment, thus affecting the development of the domestic economy, then the fact is that this? The impact of RMB appreciation on China’s export enterprises in the end be? Will it change the situation of China’s trade surplus? The RMB whether can be modest appreciation? RMB appreciation can solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States? With these questions, this article will focus on the RMB against the dollar change in China to discuss the impact of US import and export trade. At last, the empirical results show that:because of China’s special conditions, the Marshall Lerner condition does not hold in China, RMB appreciation on China’s growing trade surplus cannot play the role reversed, it does not improve the U.S.’s trade deficit continued to widen. Appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the increase of China’s import and export, China and the United States demand and supply (to the country’s GDP) growth is also conducive to an increase in the import and export. In recent years, trade between China and the United States is not related to the RMB exchange rate, but the two countries the division of labor, and consumer attitudes reasons. Underestimated on the desire of the United States expects to solve bilateral trade imbalances through the appreciation of the RMB and the effective realization of the domestic unemployment and slow economic development comes down to the value of the RMB is no basis. In addition, the RMB exchange rate and export the same changes as well as relatively low degree of this counterintuitive conclusion, detailed analysis and interpretation.