| Since the1994implementation of the exchange rate reform, export-oriented economic policies, the export surplus of increasing international trade surplus increasing scale, especially in2005, China’s new round of exchange rate reform, the implementation of market-supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies to adjust, managed floating exchange rate system. Wanton speculation in the Western governments and investment banking, inside and outside the very strong expectation of RMB appreciation, coupled with our long-term implementation of the policy to stimulate exports and encourage foreign investment, China’s balance of payments has been in substantial surplus situation the size of the annual surplus of about200billion U.S. dollars, resulting in China’s foreign exchange reserves, a substantial increase, which led to the increasing pressure of appreciation of the RMB’s appreciation. China’s export-oriented country, China’s exports in2011accounted for about23percent of the gross national product than the major is about, we can see that the economy highly dependent on exports. In this case, the RMB significant appreciation of the great economic impact, and even lead to the collapse of the national financial system, therefore it is very important to maintain the stability of the RMB. The central bank in order to maintain this stability, a large number of absorption of foreign exchange, leading to the rapid increase of China’s foreign exchange reserves, the reaction in foreign exchange of a substantial increase in central bank money supply. As of December2011, data released by China’s foreign exchange reserves from the central bank balance of S3,181,148,000,000, the cumulative balance of foreign exchange for the$25,358,701,000,000. With the continued increase in foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange has become a major source of China’s monetary base, and essentially change the traditional structure of the base currency. Has become the main problem of domestic monetary policy. What is the foreign exchange problem is the main reason? What the traditional structure of China’s monetary base? The impact of foreign exchange currency basis compared to other factors in the end be? This effect is fixed as time goes on you? Foreign exchange write-off theory, what is it? How big is the effect of the write-off China? And so on. The study of these problems is the purpose and significance of this article.The structure of this paper is divided into six sections, the specific structure and the main points are as follows:Chapter1, Introduction section. This chapter is divided into three parts, first introduced the significance of the topic of this article, followed by the related literature review, the last innovation of this paper.Chapter2, China’s foreign exchange problems and causes. The chapter first reviews the history of the various stages of the development of China’s foreign exchange reserves. Followed by foreign exchange reserves on foreign exchange lays out the development status of China’s foreign exchange, and analyze the characteristics of China’s foreign exchange problems in recent years. Finally, China’s exchange rate reform and exchange rate formation mechanism of the point of view summed up the causes of foreign exchange problems. In1994the beginning of the year, official RMB exchange rates, adopted a single and managed floating exchange rate system based on supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, foreign exchange swap prices. In order to increase foreign exchange reserves, narrowing the price gap between the swap market and official market, the Government implemented the unification of exchange rates and the mandatory foreign exchange settlement system, foreign exchange from enterprises to commercial banks to the central bank set the central bank foreign exchange reserves held continue to increase. Since then, less government regulation, buyers and sellers free transactions, exchange rate volatility of the larger OTC market-the foreign exchange swap market gradually disappear, leaving only the inside market-China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to focus on the transaction, credit and liquidation. Under the floating exchange rate system, foreign exchange is a lot of overflow is bound to cause the exchange rate falls. However, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, the central bank had to enter the foreign exchange market to purchase this part of the excess foreign exchange, making the market on the foreign exchange clearing. The formation of excess supply of foreign exchange foreign exchange reserves. People’s Bank of China to purchase foreign exchange, put the process of the yuan in the central bank’s balance sheet foreign exchange increase, the result is a large number of base money, which makes the foreign exchange to become our country put in the main channel of the monetary base a. The base currency in the money multiplier effect, exponentially increase the money supply in China. Central bank can not directly control the size of foreign exchange, which is bound to affect the implementation of China’s monetary policy and monetary policy goals, the foreign exchange problem arises. The development of China’s foreign exchange showed the following characteristics:①central bank net foreign assets and private (including a serious imbalance in the ratio of commercial banks and enterprises, individuals), net foreign assets, foreign currency assets lead to excessive concentration of the central bank of China’s foreign exchange reserves ranking high and foreign exchange problems have become more serious.②Due to foreign exchange has become a major source of China’s monetary base, weakening the ability of the base currency of the central bank regulation.③rigidity due to the growth of foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange growth in the same rigidity characteristics. If the domestic and international economic environment has not changed significantly, the balance of payments surplus is still likely to continue in the coming period, foreign exchange would not be a decreasing trend.Chapter3, the composition of China’s monetary base and the relationship with foreign exchange. As the entire banking system to create money the source of the base currency is the starting point of the monetary policy transmission process, which affect the money supply through the money multiplier effect macro national economy plays an important role. Therefore, in the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the people we must first control the monetary base and its main sources, so as to further intermediary indicators of monetary policy through the money multiplier. If you do not have the ability to control monetary base, even if the money multiplier is stable, it can not effectively control the money supply, indirect regulation can not be effectively implemented, thus affecting the realization of the objectives of monetary policy. Therefore, starting from the People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet analysis of the main source of the monetary base and changes in recent years. Analyzes the impact of foreign exchange base money.Chapter4, An Empirical Study of China’s foreign exchange impact on the monetary base. This chapter, quantitative analysis of the impact of foreign exchange of the base currency, the introduction of central bank credit and the Government’s net deposits at the same time as the contrast variable, while the introduction of state-space model through the measurement equation and equation of state, to estimate the time-dependent coefficients, analysis from2000to2011, obtained the time-dependent coefficients of each variable on the basis of currency. Explanation of the impact of foreign exchange for base money to come to the foreign exchange has fundamentally changed the base currency of the source structure from economic theory and model features.Chapter5, China’s foreign exchange write-off theory and Empirical Analysis. First, the background of China’s foreign exchange write-off policy implementation. Secondly, the analysis of the empirical analysis of China’s central bank foreign exchange write-off effect. Taken by the central bank sterilization operations should be considered the prevailing economic environment, using various monetary policy tools in order to achieve effective control of the monetary base, the central bank, which mainly include the size of credit, refinancing and interest rate controls, reserve gold, rediscount, open market operations. Before the1990s, the central bank through the credit scale and specialized banks loans to achieve the dual goals for the control of the money supply and industrial restructuring, refinancing is both a structural adjustment tools are put in the form of base money. In1997, the central bank began to use open market operations to the write-off foreign exchange. But as a long-term bonds of the main tools of open market operations, a narrow range, so the lack of open market operations vector, the market’s trading volume is smaller. Ways and means of the write-off of the Central Bank foreign exchange is not room for write-off of foreign exchange is getting smaller and smaller. In recent years, foreign exchange reserves, the face of a sharp increase caused by the increase of foreign exchange, the central bank began issuing central bank bills. Through empirical analysis that our country write-off is limited, space is getting smaller and smaller.Chapter6, recommendations and measures of foreign exchange management. At present. China mainly on the open market write-off, it should be to develop and reform the open market. Open new avenues for write-off, can proceed from the foreign exchange reserves utilization, reduce the size of foreign exchange reserves from foreign exchange source to solve. This chapter discusses two aspects, on the one hand, foreign exchange is mainly due to foreign exchange reserves released, Therefore, effective management of foreign exchange reserves, we propose some measures. On the other hand, we propose that the foreign exchange write-off measures. |
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