| Since1970, with the impact of climate, population, economy and urbanization, catastrophe losses gradually attract worldwide attention. According to Swiss Re Economic Research and Consulting study released report, long-term statistics show that the amount of catastrophe losses worldwide average annual rate of19%growth (the growth rate of deduction of7%inflation).2005, to suffer the worst year for catastrophe losses in recent decades, the global total of about400from the catastrophe, the loss of more than230billion U.S. dollars. China has a vast territory with rich natural resources, but also due to the huge geographical area and the diversity of the surface, there are many great risks the incentive for large catastrophic potential accidents. China’s catastrophic risk types of wide geographical distribution, the losses caused by severe natural disasters almost every year. China’s catastrophic disaster insurance’s compensation total loss ratio is very low. As an important method of catastrophe risk management, catastrophe insurance gradually be paid increasing attention of the public on the catastrophic risk more and more attention. Research on catastrophe insurance system corresponding large number of catastrophe insurance demand and the supply of catastrophe insurance, such as the sides of the coin, the two occupy the position of equal importance. However, my research on catastrophe insurance system mainly supply point of view of catastrophe insurance, catastrophe insurance needs are few and far between. Therefore, this article will use in the analysis of the characteristics of demand for catastrophe insurance on the basis of expected utility theory and prospect theory by Kahneman (1979) proposed the demand for catastrophe insurance in China. Contrary to consumer decision-making in the face of the small probability of large loss events and the expected utility theory of "rational man" assumption, based on theoretical speculation of the insurance requirements of the theory and reality often do not match. Especially in terms of the demand for catastrophe insurance, catastrophe risk, the probability is small, resulting in loss of huge is the most substantial features. Therefore, the introduction of prospect theory as a supplement to, the use of expected utility theory with analysis of the demand for catastrophe insurance in China.This article is divided into six parts, the main content and perspectives of the various parts of the following:Part Ⅰ: theoretical background of this study as well as domestic and foreign scholars in this regard, the significance of the interpretation of this study, along with proposed to promote catastrophe insurance system in China to build the corresponding content from the demand point of view.Part Ⅱ: The part of the first from the perspective of the historical development of the definition of risk and catastrophic risk. Then Describe the detail of catastrophic risks and catastrophe insurance, emphasis the special expression of China’s catastrophic risks include the gradually increasing probability, more severe damage and big difference among different area. Resist measures for catastrophe insurance as a major catastrophic risk are described. And resist the means of other risks, including risk reduction, risk retention, a brief introduction, it is important to analyze the advantage of the catastrophe insurance risk sharing.Part Ⅲ: Catastrophe insurance and catastrophe insurance needs theoretical tools. Theories related to the insurance needs sorting out, expectations, expected utility theory and prospect theory in the demand for catastrophe insurance, a new perspective of prospect theory as a research demand for catastrophe insurance.Part Ⅳ: the definition of the demand for catastrophe insurance and influencing factors. First confirmation of the concept of insurance needs, the second section describes the meaning of the catastrophe insurance needs, analysis of the demand for catastrophe insurance and general insurance needs are different, and to distinguish between the two, then why the lack of demand for catastrophe insurance explained.Part Ⅴ: the theory of demand for catastrophe insurance. This section describes the demand for catastrophe insurance is less than the results of the empirical investigation of this phenomenon, within the framework of prospect theory and expected utility theory to analyze the phenomenon, focusing on stress analysis from the point of view of real-valued function and decision-making process, analysis of which decision-making process described in the representativeness bias, availability bias and anchoring effect on the risk decision-making. Analysis of its impact by the lack of demand phenomenon of the reality of the catastrophe insurance, and propose an important role in analysis of the demand for catastrophe insurance in the catastrophe insurance system building.Part Ⅵ: This section first introduces the mature international catastrophe insurance system, and is a compulsory insurance, the compensation limit is set, the Government’s role in the International Comparisons. Subsequently, the prediction model adopted by China’s Catastrophe Insurance System, proposed that China needs to establish a government-led, commercial insurance companies involved in the catastrophe insurance system. Finally, in the face of catastrophe insurance needs of our possible lack of reason.Part Ⅶ: Catastrophe Insurance System to build the policies and proposals. This section first describes the catastrophe risk management tools, the importance of our country to build a catastrophe insurance system. Subsequent turn to analyze the breakthrough point for catastrophe insurance system in China to carry out the three proposed should improve residents’ perceptions of risk level, the distinction between personal and corporate demand for catastrophe insurance and pay attention to China’s cultural impact on the demand for catastrophe insurance.The innovation of this paper is to:1. The topics of this paper is relatively new: catastrophic risk for the study, from the demand point of departure to explore the Construction of China’s Catastrophe Insurance System. This article is a study conducted from the perspective of the demand for catastrophe insurance, insurance needs, the demand for catastrophe insurance applicable to the analysis of economic theory to draw the important role of China’s residents demand for catastrophe insurance in catastrophe insurance system building, and stressed the need to before the implementation of the system to pay attention to cultivate China’s demand for catastrophe insurance.(2) the theory of this paper is relatively new: In this paper, a more advanced prospect theory to examine the changes in the demand for catastrophe insurance from the perspective of the "reasonable person", and emphasized the impact of the catastrophe risk decision-making heuristic bias and other subjective factors, influencing factors and strive to be more reasonable inspection demand for catastrophe insurance and targeted to carry out system build. The view presented in this paper is relatively new to the further refinement, the demand for catastrophe insurance from the perspective of the needs of research will be divided into personal catastrophe insurance demand and company demand for catastrophe insurance, and put forward different proposals for different groups needs to enhance; analysis of the specific factors affect the demand for catastrophe insurance in China, obtained solving strategies to solve the lack of demand in China’s Catastrophe Insurance. |
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