A Study On The Early Warning System Of Financial Crises:Based On The Unbalanced Of The Real Economy And Virtual Economy

The entire history of modern economic development seems to be a history of financial crisis. From economic crisis1825in U.K to today’s European debt crisis, financial crisis detailed to show us the destructive power of the financial crisis on the socio-economic in the190years.Given the destructive power of the financial crisis, the study on how to avoid the financial crisis broke out and the financial crisis early warning have never stopped. However, the historical tragedy never stopped, since the1980s, the world fall into the panic brought by financial crisis several times. The index of EWS has become the focus of many experts and scholars when discuss the Asian financial crisis. And then, more and more financial crisis early warning system came out. But seen form the recent early warning systems, the warning result isn’t very good. Even the famous KLR signal analysis acknowledged worldwide suffered criticism in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis. At the same time, the problem of data collection has been unable to solve. For China, the economic environment has more and more similar with the economic environment in which financial crisis have been broken, such as sustained high inflation. What’s more, the study also found that the country towarding to market economy has broken large financial crisis at least once. Maybe financial crisis is unavoidable. China is also faced with the reality of issues and challenges of the prevention of financial crises in his international and marketization road. Although our country has not been happened a serious financial crisis in the history, but the past did not happen does not mean that the crisis will not happen in the future. Many scholars even predict that the probability of a financial crisis must be1during the next10years. But prophecy is only predicted the lack of strong evidence. the financial crisis is how far away from China, we need to have a rigorous and in-depth analysis and research to prove. Cut from the perspective of the real economy and virtual economic imbalances, we explain the concept of the real economy and virtual economy at first, and then clarify the relationship between them; Secondly, we use the factors of production theory to show the relationship between the imbalance and the financial crisis. And then, finding index based on the analyzed of five typical financial crisis’the real economy and virtual economic imbalances. Finally, do some empirical study to find out the indicators that can best reflects the real economy and virtual economic’ imbalances, and set the threshold signal analysis model.From the content of the study, we can find following several innovative:First, explain the causes of uneven economic development and the reasons for the outbreak of financial crisis in the unbalanced perspective from the perspective of the factors of production to; Second, this article closely hold the imbalance perspective of the virtual economy and real economy, and ultimately determine the choice of empirical index based on these two perspectives imbalance characterization of the typical financial crisis. Third, we used fewer indicators to predict the occurrence of the crisis.Because of the problem on author inadequate capacity and data collection, the text have the following shortcomings. First, due to the limitations of the data, we can not be more detailed from the perspective of a production department to show the imbalance can only use the macro indicators; Secondly, based on a typical event selection matching indicators seems somewhat narrow. Thirdly, we the only think higher than the warning threshold value is early warning signals, but did not explain too much below the threshold.The full text is divided into six parts, each part of the arrangement are as follows:The first part is the introduction. This chapter identifies the research background of this article, research value, and pointed out that the research ideas, research methods and content.The second part is the Review of the Literature and Commentary. This section review the domestic and international financial crisis early warning indicator system establishment and development of early warning models at frist. And then various types of crisis indicators are summarized, Finally, give a brief evaluation to domestic and foreign research points out existing inadequacies of the study the financial crisis early warning.The third part is the imbalances and financial crisis. This part is the core of the theory. At first, we give the concept of the real economy and virtual economy and clarify the relationship between the two. Then explanation the reason of financial crisis based on the theoretical point of view of the factors of production.The fourth part is a typical event and indicator selection. This section analysis five financial crisis’imbalance of the virtual economy and real economic development. Obtained paired imbalance indicators, laid the foundation for the empirical indicators of choice.The fifth part is empirical and inspection. The samples were analyzed30times of financial crisis since the1980s. At first, use an independent samples t-test to select one of the most representative of the real economy and virtual economy imbalance indicators. Build early warning determine the threshold of GDP and M2mean speed of the mean threshold through comparison imbalance indicators, and ultimately to determine whether the crisis occurs. Finally, judge would China would be happened crisis.The sixth part is the judgment on the possibility of financial crisis in China. From two angles of the imbalance of industrial structure and financial structural imbalance, this part of the list of the key points of China’s unbalanced economic development, in order to determine our country does not exist a significant imbalance in point, not the financial crisis. In addition, the empirical evidence of our financial crisis does not occur in the near future.The seventh part is conclusion. It’s the summary of this article, the main conclusions of the study of early warning indicators of financial crisis in this article, the policy recommendations, shortcomings in this article are described.