| The uncertainties are the main risk resources of international dry-bulk shippingmarket. Owing to the continuous development of world economy, the demand for rawmaterials and energy has been steadily increasing, and shipping industry is extremelyactive. Researches on shipping price are attracting much more attention.Dry bulk shipping market price which were effective market research theory as thefoundation, the normal distribution as the basic assumptions by the review of shippingmarket research, this is not able to better explain dry bulk shipping price fluctuations,and shipping prices have a similar price in the volatility of the stock market researchwhich is based on the fractal theory, and obey the fractal distribution as the basicassumptions. The theoretical foundation of the article is doing research for the basicassumptions and the limitation of the effective market theory, fractal theory in pricefluctuations. It is proved theoretically that the fractal theory is more suitable for pricefluctuation research, fractal distribution has more general distribution form, and it isbetter able to fitting dry bulk shipping in price fluctuations.In the third chapter the article perform examination for international dry bulkfreight index abnormal distribution in any time scales by using histogram inspectionmethod, JB testing method and KS testing method. The inspection results show thatInternational dry-bulk freight index is disobedient normally distribution in any timescales, and has obvious peak and fat tail. Using fractal distribution parametersestimation method, the paper are estimated to the dry bulk freight index dailyincoming sequence fractal distribution parameters, this again confirms the fact thatInternational dry bulk cargo index is subservient to fractal distribution, and itsdistribution is done some more detailed strokes. Compared with the fitting results offractal distribution and normal distribution to dry bulk cargo index distribution, fractaldistribution can better reflect price fluctuations, normal distribution will overestimateearnings, underestimate risk.Based on International dry bulk cargo index fractal distribution, the paper is studyin its fractal characteristic. By the comparative study on the fractal of the distributionstructure dry bulk freight index daily incoming sequence, weekly incoming sequenceand monthly incoming sequence, it proves that freight index has statistical self-comparability structure in different time scales; with the box dimension reflectingthe characteristic of the price index fractal dimension which is freight index hassimilar box dimension, it proves that time series rough degree and complexity aresimilar; R/S analysis results show that International dry bulk cargo freight index hasLong-term memory characteristics.With the study of International dry bulk shipping freight index fractal distributionstructure and fractal traits, the paper proves International dry bulk shipping freightindex obey fractal distribution, and its fractal trails has self similarity, fractaldimension and Long-term memory and so on. Based on these, the paper analyses thefluctuation and the risk of dry bulk cargo freight. |
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