The Research About Marketization Of Deposit Interest Rate In China

Since U.S. economist McKinnon and Shaw invented the theory of "financial deepening" about the problem of economic development in developing countries, it qucikly get close attention of the developing countries and theoretical circles.In practice, developing countries and regions have carried out marketization of interest rates as the core of financial deepening reform, such as South Korea, Chile, Philippines, Poland, Argentina。With the deepening of China’s socialist market economic system construction, marketization of interest rates is becoming an important part of building a socialist market economic system and playing the role of market allocation of resources;is the key to strengthening our financial indirect control; is becoming a necessary condition to improve financial institutions’ self operating mechanism and their competitiveness to the international.Since1993, China embarked on the path of interest rates market-oriented reforms in many areas and multiple levels and now have initially achieved the realization of marketization of interest rates,while only the deposit interest rate without an effective progress and breakthroughs.At present, to some extent, the popular financial product can interprete the initial realization of a market-oriented of China’s deposit rate, especially from the angle of return ensured financial produets.This article is based on this starting point to study China’s deposit rate market-oriented or not from the angle of return ensured financial products.Chinese scholars have already study the research of interest rate quite good, this provides an important theoretical support and methodological guidance for China to carry out marketization ofinterest rates,but a few ground-breaking researches in the deposit interest rate, and from the point of view of financial products to analyze the deposit marketization of interest rates is more rare, therefore, the author choosing the study of deposit marketization of interest rates from the view of financial products of ensuring the income. has certain theoretical and practical significance.This study expanded on the basis of yield curve research on financial products in China which was completed by the Institute trust and financial management of Southwest University of Finance and Economics.The main idea of this paper is:first to build yield curve of financial ensured income products, and compare yield data obtained from the piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation and real data to analysis the effectiveness,and then proceeds rate data were analyzed with shibor interest rate data to analyze the conductivity. Finally, use yield data to analysis deposit rate of China’s.Using the piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation and cubic spline function to get the yield curve of financial products which ensured income.The data this article used are derived from the PYWM and the site of Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, the sample period is from January1,2011to March15,2012, but in the study, only5957of financial ensured profit products was used, then through using the quantitative models of the piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation and cubic spline function to get yield data,but while using the piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation and cubic spline function to get yield data should remember the following key factors:Firstly, the lack of scale information.The information disclosure of China’s commercial banks’financial products is still not perfect, especially the size information about the products, while calculating the average yield of the same day the same period must use the scale of products.So to those have no scale information products can only be handled by giving a certain size, how to determine the certain size become the key point.This article is handled by giving the average size to those have no scale information products,and if one day the products of the same period are all not given the scale of this information, then use the average rate of return.Secondly,how to use Matlab to run so large data which include missing scale data become another problem.because many products scale is NULLwhich will result Matlab automatically set to "0", but during calculating the scale-weighted average must use the scale information.so this problem need to be handled in smart way.Thirdly, choosing the critical deadline point should take into account the balance of the length of period and the representative, and the shorter the term the more important.To determine which method was used to build the yield curve of financial products through a comprehensive comparative analysis between piecewise cubic hermite interpolation and cubic spline function,and discovered only the data fitted by piecewise cubic hermite interpolation fitting the resulting data is relatively stable and consistent the actual situation,while China’s bond yield curve also use hermite interpolation model,so to some extent,can believed the correctness of the choice of this model in this article.Determined which model was used and then compare the fitted-data with real data to analysis the rationality and accuracy of fitting data,and found that the fitted-data is consistent,but still have difference,which can be reflected in the calculation of the variance of the difference between the fitted-data and the actual data.Next use the fitting data compared with the data of Shanghai interbank offered rate, when determine shibor interest rates as a benchmark,I directly used the existing research results and conclusions,and then use Granger test of econometric models to analyze whether there is a causal relationship between the fitting data and shibor interest rate,and found there is a causal relationship between shibor07and lccp07、shibor14and lccpl4,while there is no causal relationship between shibor31and Iccp31,at1%level by co-integration test obtained shibor07and lccp07shibor14and Iccpl4cointegration relationship,namely that there is a existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between the fitting data and shibor interest rates.Finally,use the data which verified by the shibor rate to analyze the China’s deposit rate.Which is the purpose of this article.Mainly from the features, benefits, risks, and their terms between the guaranteed-income products and deposit products,and discussed:functions.like deposit products,the guaranteed-income products can also bring profits and absorb deposits for bank;risk,from concept of the guaranteed-income products can be learned that the guaranteed-income products,like deposit products,are also without risk,from this perspective can say that the guaranteed-income products and eposit products are substitutes for one another:proceeds of bank deposit rate is generally fixed,and has always below the CPI,while according to statistics issued in2011,the deadline less a month、between one month and three months、between three months and six months、between six months and one year、more than one year of personal finance products,weighted average expected rate of return were3.9%、4.5%、4.9%、5.1%and6.8%which significantly higher than the same period of RMB deposit interest rate;the term structure of China’s deposit rate is determined by the People’s Bank of China and the types of term structure only three months、six months、one year、 two years%three years and five years,while the term structure of the financial products issued by banks is long or short,not like fixed-term products provided by deposit,there are more than a hundred and thirty species of the term structure of financial products,which greatly meet the needs of all types of investors in the products of different maturities.In short,the bank of China through financial innovation issued the income-guaranteed products as the replace of deposit to circumvent China’s current government controls on deposit interest rate ceiling,according to market conditions and customer needs,issuing risk-free、term flexible and more competitive rate of return of the income-guaranteed products,enabling banks to maximize profits.With the intensification of financial market competition,the "price war" by raising the yield to be the most direct and effective means of competition,and the market-oriented rational behavior of independent pricing,to some extent,can be regarded as floating deposit rate, deposit has interest rate ceiling,while financial products revenues can be infinitely raise,so from the perspective of market-oriented yield of the income-guaranteed products can reasonably drawn the result that the deposit rate in china has achieved market-oriented.