| The stock market is the most important component in our financial system, is the core of our country’s financial market. The interest rates, as a representative of the monetary policy, will produce very big effect to function to the stock market. So the interest rate control measures play a key role in the macro control system. In the traditional economics theory, the interest rate and the stock price is a negative correlation relationship, interest rate adjustment will change the opportunity cost of owning stocks, influence the behavior of investors, change flow direction of capital, affect the intrinsic value of the enterprise, change the management cost and profit of the enterprise, cause the changes of the exchange rate. But in our country, will the interest rate changes the stock price obviously? Is there the negative relationship between the interest and the stock price in china? Is a topic worth to research. With China’s real estate securitization deepens, real estate listed companies account for a larger proportion of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Until now, there are more than100listed real estate companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. They are playing the more and more important role in the market. The real estate listed companies are the bridge of the relation between the stock market and real estate markets. The price performance of real estate listed companies reflects the state of the economy of China’s real estate. As a result, the study of monetary policy, especially interest rate policy on real estate stock prices of listed companies has important theoretical and practical significance.To study the influence of China’s interest rates policy on real estate listed company stock price, this paper draw a lessons from some scholars, but this paper have a great innovation as to previous studies. The innovation of this paper is study the influence of China’s interest rates policy on real estate listed company stock price. In addition, I divide into the influence into short and long-term influence, and choose SHIBOR as the variable represent of interest rates of long-term influence. Finally choose the2006-2012as the study period, more convincing.This paper uses the event study to study how the interest rate policy influence the stock price of real estate listed companies in short term. Our sample is the daily data from2006to2012.Our empirical results show that the day before interest rate policy change, the rate can affect stock price of the company in short term, the results consistent with theoretical analysis. But the day on interest rate policy change or after interest rate policy change the results are not consistent with theoretical analysis. Interest rate policy can affect stock price of the company in short term, but interfered by the expected factors.We use VAR model to study how the interest rate policy influence the stock price of real estate listed companies in long term. Our sample is the monthly data from2006to2012.Our empirical results show that, in the long term, interest rate changes will affect stock price of the real estate listed companies, but the influence is of a small degree.Finally, I give some policy suggestions according to the results. Firstly, speed up the construction of China’s capital market; strive to build a multi-level capital market. Second, break the segmentation between monetary market and capital market. Third, speed up the pace of the liberalization of interest rate. Fourth, enhance our financial supervision and financial legal system construction. Fifth, solve the problems existing in Chinese stock market; improve the stock market’s Environmental. Sixth, enhance the education to the investors. Seventh, pay attention to the company’s own construction and development. Seventh, make efforts to the internationalization of capital market. |
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